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UD Aretxabaleta vs Anorga

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

18' Event
Yaniz I.
32' Event
Ortiz A.
50' Event
Aizpurua J.

AI Match Summary

UD Aretxabaleta in this Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 6-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored UD Aretxabaleta.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
UD Aretxabaleta
30%
Draws
33%
Anorga
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: UD Aretxabaleta

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Anorga have won more games recently than UD Aretxabaleta.
  • Win probability leans UD Aretxabaleta's way, sitting at 70%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 93%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 39.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 18%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
UD Aretxabaleta Clean Sheet 10%
Anorga Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric UD Aretxabaleta Anorga
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 10 11
Draws 5 3
Losses 14 16
Goals Scored 1.48 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.83 1.73
Expected Goals (xG) 1.65 1.85
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 1, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
UD Aretxabaleta vs Anorga
6:3
Sep 21, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Anorga vs UD Aretxabaleta
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

UD Aretxabaleta Compare

Top Goalscorer Ortiz A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Aizpurua J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.27
Avg xA / game 0.82

Anorga Compare

Top Goalscorer Yaniz I.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Otxoa A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.68
Avg xA / game 1.03

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

UD Aretxabaleta 65 / 100
Anorga 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
UD Aretxabaleta Anorga

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick UD Aretxabaleta Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 6.00 goals as a typical output.

UD Aretxabaleta scored in 76% of their last 29 games.

Anorga has conceded goals in 73% of their last 30 outings.

Solid form: UD Aretxabaleta remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

UD Aretxabaleta VS Anorga
1.88 Goals Scored 1.57
2.13 Goals Conceded 1.43
100% Over 1.5 86%
100% Over 2.5 71%
50% Over 3.5 29%

Recent Form & Match History

UD Aretxabaleta

(Home)
26 Sept
UD Aretxabaleta
1 : 2
Derio
19 Sept
SCD Durango
0 : 0
UD Aretxabaleta
13 Sept
UD Aretxabaleta
0 : 0
Beasain
05 Sept
Touring KE
0 : 1
UD Aretxabaleta
22 Aug
UD Aretxabaleta
3 : 0
Mirandes B
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Anorga

(Away)
09 May
Anorga
1 : 2
Real Sociedad C
03 May
Pasaia
0 : 1
Anorga
26 Apr
Anorga
2 : 2
Lagun Onak
18 Apr
SD Deusto
3 : 0
Anorga
11 Apr
Anorga
4 : 1
Portugalete
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Portugalete 34 24 6 4 70:29 78
2 Leioa 34 18 7 9 50:34 61
3 Derio 34 17 7 10 54:40 58
4 Lagun Onak 34 17 6 11 54:34 57
5 Touring KE 34 16 9 9 47:35 57
6 Real Sociedad C 34 17 4 13 48:39 55
7 San Ignacio 34 16 7 11 37:27 55
8 Aurrera de Vitoria 34 16 6 12 42:41 54
9 Alaves C 34 15 8 11 57:40 53
10 UD Aretxabaleta 34 13 6 15 56:61 45
11 SCD Durango 34 11 11 12 35:36 44
12 Santurtzi 34 9 12 13 32:45 39
13 Eibar C 34 9 9 16 44:53 36
14 Pasaia 34 9 9 16 26:46 36
15 Anorga 34 11 4 19 37:59 34
16 Zamudio 34 9 6 19 42:59 33
17 Zarautz KE 34 8 6 20 30:60 30
18 SD Deusto 34 6 7 21 26:49 25
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 (Play Offs)