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UD Ourense vs Barakaldo - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

Primera RFEF - Group 1 Estadio de O Couto, Ourense
Sat, Oct 10, 2026
VS
04:45 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

UD Ourense host Barakaldo in the Primera RFEF - Group 1. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. UD Ourense have averaged 1.24 scored and 1.14 conceded recently, against Barakaldo's 1.31 scored and 1.03 conceded. These two haven't met recently, so form does most of the talking. xG projections (1.06 - 1.31) back Barakaldo to edge this. AI prediction: Away (2) Win — correct score tipped at 0-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

19%
UD Ourense
35%
Draws
46%
Barakaldo
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Barakaldo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Barakaldo carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular Primera RFEF - Group 1 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
UD Ourense Clean Sheet 18%
Barakaldo Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric UD Ourense Barakaldo
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 12 13
Draws 8 8
Losses 9 8
Goals Scored 1.24 1.31
Goals Conceded 1.14 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

UD Ourense 32 / 100
Barakaldo 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
UD Ourense Barakaldo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Barakaldo Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: UD Ourense scored in 69% of their last 29 outings.

Defensive concern: Barakaldo conceded in 66% of 29 recent games.

Solid form: UD Ourense remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Barakaldo's recent record shows 2 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

UD Ourense VS Barakaldo
0.75 Goals Scored 1.25
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

UD Ourense

(Home)
03 Oct
Real Union
1 : 1
UD Ourense
27 Sept
UD Ourense
0 : 0
Cacereno
19 Sept
Unionistas de Salamanca
3 : 1
UD Ourense
12 Sept
UD Ourense
0 : 3
UD Logrones
05 Sept
Mirandes
2 : 0
UD Ourense
Page 1 of 6

Barakaldo

(Away)
03 Oct
Barakaldo
1 : 1
Arenas Getxo
27 Sept
Barakaldo
3 : 3
Real Aviles
19 Sept
Racing Club Ferrol
1 : 0
Barakaldo
11 Sept
Barakaldo
1 : 0
CD Extremadura
05 Sept
CD Coria
4 : 1
Barakaldo
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 UD Logrones 6 5 1 0 15:7 16
2 Lugo 6 5 1 0 9:3 16
3 Ath Bilbao B 6 3 2 1 12:8 11
4 Cacereno 6 3 2 1 6:3 11
5 Ponferradina 6 3 2 1 5:3 11
6 Mirandes 6 3 1 2 9:7 10
7 Zamora 6 3 1 2 8:6 10
8 Racing Club Ferrol 6 3 1 2 7:5 10
9 Real Union 6 2 2 2 13:11 8
10 Deportivo Fabril 6 2 2 2 8:7 8
11 Pontevedra 6 2 2 2 8:8 8
12 Leonesa 6 2 2 2 4:5 8
13 CD Extremadura 6 2 0 4 5:6 6
14 AD Merida 6 2 0 4 9:11 6
15 Unionistas de Salamanca 6 2 0 4 9:12 6
16 Barakaldo 6 1 3 2 6:9 6
17 Real Aviles 6 1 2 3 9:10 5
18 CD Coria 6 1 2 3 8:11 5
19 UD Ourense 6 0 2 4 2:10 2
20 Arenas Getxo 6 0 2 4 4:14 2
Promotion - LaLiga2 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Primera RFEF - Group 1 (Promotion - Play Offs)