Sport Picks

Portugal

Liga de Honra 2005/2006

Varzim

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

UD Ovarense play Varzim in the Liga de Honra 2005/2006. Varzim are favorites here. Recently, UD Ovarense averaged 1.17 goals scored and 1.97 conceded. Varzim averaged 1.41 goals scored and 1.15 conceded. In past meetings, UD Ovarense won 0, Varzim won 5, and they drew 0. Their last match on Apr 23, 2006 ended 2:4. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.97 for UD Ovarense and 1.24 for Varzim. This points to a Varzim double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%

UD Ovarense

16%

Draws

60%

Varzim

Draw rate projection: 16% Favored: Varzim

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

86% / Very High Confidence

UD Ovarense picked up more points recently compared to Varzim.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.97 vs 1.24 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 57%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 80%

Over 2.5 Goals 57%

Over 3.5 Goals 34%

Over 4.5 Goals 17%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 57%

UD Ovarense Clean Sheet 19%

Varzim Clean Sheet 15%

First Half Goal 72%

Second Half Goal 76%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	UD Ovarense	Varzim
Matches Played	30	34
Wins	6	13
Draws	5	10
Losses	19	11
Goals Scored	1.17	1.41
Goals Conceded	1.97	1.15

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 23, 2006 Liga Portugal 2

UD Ovarense vs Varzim

Possession: 43% - 46% Cards: 1 - 2

2:4

Dec 17, 2005 Liga Portugal 2

Varzim vs UD Ovarense

Possession: 55% - 52% Cards: 4 - 0

3:1

Mar 6, 2005 Liga Portugal 2

UD Ovarense vs Varzim

Possession: 48% - 44% Cards: 3 - 2

1:2

Oct 24, 2004 Liga Portugal 2

Varzim vs UD Ovarense

Possession: 55% - 58% Cards: 1 - 3

2:0

Jan 18, 2004 Liga Portugal 2

Varzim vs UD Ovarense

Possession: 49% - 49% Cards: 0 - 1

5:2

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

UD Ovarense 25 / 100

Varzim 57 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

UD Ovarense Varzim

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Varzim Win (2)

Secondary Pick Varzim & Over 2.5

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +50%

6.25

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +11.7%

1.96

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

UD Ovarense attacking → ← attacking Varzim

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

UD Ovarense scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Varzim let in goals in 76% of their last 34 matches.

Games between these two average 4.40 goals.

UD Ovarense went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Varzim lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

23 Points in last 5 49

0.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.38

0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.75

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Beira Mar	34	18	14	2	45:18	68
2	Aves	34	18	10	6	47:30	64
3	Leixoes	34	17	11	6	47:19	62
4	Olhanense	34	13	13	8	41:28	52
5	Varzim	34	13	13	8	47:39	52
6	Gondomar	34	14	9	11	56:41	51
7	Santa Clara	34	13	12	9	45:32	51
8	Chaves	34	13	11	10	40:36	50
9	Estoril	34	11	12	11	44:43	45
10	Feirense	34	12	8	14	44:44	44
11	Vizela	34	11	11	12	42:48	44
12	Portimonense	34	10	13	11	36:36	43
13	Moreirense	34	11	9	14	36:37	42
14	Covilha	34	10	12	12	37:42	42
15	FC Barreirense	34	8	11	15	31:41	35
16	FC Marco	34	7	8	19	32:63	29
17	UD Ovarense	34	6	7	21	36:72	25
18	FC Maia Lidador	34	6	6	22	30:67	24