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UD Samano vs Guarnizo - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Lopez I.
51' Event
Helguera O.
56' Event
Zulaika A.

AI Match Summary

UD Samano in this Tercera RFEF - Group 3 matchup, with the score ending 4-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored UD Samano.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
UD Samano
30%
Draws
23%
Guarnizo
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: UD Samano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Guarnizo lately — more wins on the board than UD Samano.
  • Model gives UD Samano a 47% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors UD Samano here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
UD Samano Clean Sheet 68%
Guarnizo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric UD Samano Guarnizo
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 4 15
Draws 5 8
Losses 20 6
Goals Scored 0.97 1.31
Goals Conceded 2.48 0.86
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 20, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
UD Samano vs Guarnizo
4:1
Apr 5, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
UD Samano vs Guarnizo
1:0
Nov 23, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Guarnizo vs UD Samano
1:2
Feb 17, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
UD Samano vs Guarnizo
1:0
Sep 30, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Guarnizo vs UD Samano
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

UD Samano Compare

Top Goalscorer Lopez I.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Helguera O.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Guarnizo Compare

Top Goalscorer Palacios C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

UD Samano 95 / 100
Guarnizo 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
UD Samano Guarnizo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick UD Samano Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

UD Samano scored in 62% of their last 29 games.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Solid form: UD Samano remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Defensive concern: Guarnizo conceded in 55% of 29 recent games.

Scoring Trends

UD Samano VS Guarnizo
1.88 Goals Scored 0.75
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.63
100% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 50%
63% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

UD Samano

(Home)
10 Oct
UD Samano
2 : 0
Velarde
03 Oct
Atletico Mineros
0 : 4
UD Samano
27 Sept
Cayon CD
1 : 1
UD Samano
20 Sept
UD Samano
4 : 1
Guarnizo
13 Sept
Vimenor
2 : 1
UD Samano
Page 1 of 6

Guarnizo

(Away)
10 Oct
Guarnizo
1 : 1
Bezana
03 Oct
Torina
1 : 1
Guarnizo
26 Sept
Guarnizo
3 : 1
Velarde
20 Sept
UD Samano
4 : 1
Guarnizo
12 Sept
Guarnizo
0 : 1
Cayon CD
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 CD Tropezon 6 6 0 0 13:3 18
2 Bezana 6 5 1 0 12:4 16
3 CD Laredo 6 5 0 1 14:2 15
4 UD Samano 6 3 2 1 14:6 11
5 CD Revilla 6 3 2 1 13:8 11
6 Cayon CD 5 3 1 1 5:2 10
7 Vimenor 6 3 1 2 7:5 10
8 Torina 5 2 3 0 8:2 9
9 Selaya 5 2 1 2 5:7 7
10 Atletico Mineros 6 2 0 4 5:13 6
11 Guarnizo 6 1 2 3 7:10 5
12 Solares 6 1 2 3 5:8 5
13 Castro 6 1 2 3 6:10 5
14 UM Escobedo 6 1 2 3 5:10 5
15 Atletico Albericia 6 1 1 4 7:11 4
16 Velarde 6 1 1 4 3:10 4
17 Naval Reinosa 6 0 2 4 6:15 2
18 CD Barquereno 5 0 1 4 2:11 1
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 3 (Play Offs)