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UD Samano vs Velarde - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Sat, Oct 10, 2026
VS
04:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

UD Samano host Velarde in the Tercera RFEF - Group 3. This one's hard to separate. Recent numbers: UD Samano at 1 goals for, 2.45 against; Velarde at 0.83 for, 1.83 against. Head-to-head, UD Samano have won 2 to Velarde's 2, with 1 draws. They last met on Mar 2, 2024, ending 1:1. The numbers (1.04 xG vs 2.00) point toward Velarde. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
UD Samano
30%
Draws
23%
Velarde
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: UD Samano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • UD Samano have won more games recently than Velarde.
  • UD Samano are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 3 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 54%
Over 4.5 Goals 24%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
UD Samano Clean Sheet 10%
Velarde Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric UD Samano Velarde
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 5 4
Draws 6 8
Losses 22 18
Goals Scored 1 0.83
Goals Conceded 2.45 1.83
Expected Goals (xG) 1.04 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 2, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Velarde vs UD Samano
1:1
Oct 14, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
UD Samano vs Velarde
1:3
Mar 16, 2019 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Velarde vs UD Samano
4:3
Oct 27, 2018 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
UD Samano vs Velarde
3:0
Feb 24, 2018 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
UD Samano vs Velarde
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

UD Samano 83 / 100
Velarde 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
UD Samano Velarde

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick UD Samano Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Velarde's defensive record shows goals conceded in 80% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 3.80 goals as a typical output.

UD Samano scored in 64% of their last 33 games.

Solid form: UD Samano remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

UD Samano VS Velarde
0.75 Goals Scored 0.5
3.5 Goals Conceded 1.33
100% Over 1.5 33%
100% Over 2.5 33%
75% Over 3.5 33%

Recent Form & Match History

UD Samano

(Home)
03 Oct
Atletico Mineros
0 : 4
UD Samano
27 Sept
Cayon CD
1 : 1
UD Samano
20 Sept
UD Samano
4 : 1
Guarnizo
13 Sept
Vimenor
2 : 1
UD Samano
05 Sept
UD Samano
2 : 2
CD Barquereno
Page 1 of 7

Velarde

(Away)
03 Oct
Velarde
0 : 1
Cayon CD
26 Sept
Guarnizo
3 : 1
Velarde
19 Sept
Velarde
1 : 4
Vimenor
13 Sept
CD Barquereno
0 : 1
Velarde
05 Sept
Velarde
0 : 0
Naval Reinosa
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 CD Tropezon 5 5 0 0 11:2 15
2 Bezana 5 5 0 0 11:3 15
3 CD Laredo 5 4 0 1 12:2 12
4 Vimenor 5 3 1 1 7:3 10
5 Cayon CD 5 3 1 1 5:2 10
6 Torina 5 2 3 0 8:2 9
7 UD Samano 5 2 2 1 12:6 8
8 CD Revilla 5 2 2 1 10:6 8
9 Selaya 5 2 1 2 5:7 7
10 Atletico Mineros 5 2 0 3 4:11 6
11 Castro 5 1 2 2 4:6 5
12 UM Escobedo 5 1 2 2 3:7 5
13 Guarnizo 5 1 1 3 6:9 4
14 Solares 5 1 1 3 3:6 4
15 Velarde 5 1 1 3 3:8 4
16 Atletico Albericia 5 0 1 4 3:9 1
17 Naval Reinosa 5 0 1 4 4:13 1
18 CD Barquereno 5 0 1 4 2:11 1
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 3 (Play Offs)