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UD San Fernando vs Panaderia Prediction & H2H Stats

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Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Gemelo A.
51' Event
Baez C.
90' Event
Rodriguez J.

AI Match Summary

Panaderia in this Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2025/2026 tie, finishing 1-2. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
UD San Fernando
20%
Draws
40%
Panaderia
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • UD San Fernando have won more games recently than Panaderia.
  • 40% — that's where the model lands on UD San Fernando taking it.
  • UD San Fernando have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Panaderia, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
UD San Fernando Clean Sheet 68%
Panaderia Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric UD San Fernando Panaderia
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 15 13
Draws 8 9
Losses 6 7
Goals Scored 1.52 1.38
Goals Conceded 0.69 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 24, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
UD San Fernando vs Panaderia
1:2
May 16, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Panaderia vs UD San Fernando
0:2
Mar 4, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
UD San Fernando vs Panaderia
1:0
Sep 20, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Panaderia vs UD San Fernando
0:0
Feb 15, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Panaderia vs UD San Fernando
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

UD San Fernando Compare

Top Goalscorer Rodriguez J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Panaderia Compare

Top Goalscorer Gemelo A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Baez C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

UD San Fernando 86 / 100
Panaderia 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
UD San Fernando Panaderia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick UD San Fernando Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

UD San Fernando scored in 79% of their last 29 games.

Panaderia's defensive record shows goals conceded in 69% of 29 matches.

Recent resilience: UD San Fernando stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Games between these two average 1.40 goals.

Scoring Trends

UD San Fernando VS Panaderia
1.25 Goals Scored 1.13
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

UD San Fernando

(Home)
26 Sept
Union Sur Yaiza
2 : 0
UD San Fernando
20 Sept
UD San Fernando
5 : 0
UD Playas de Sotavento
12 Sept
CD Laguna
0 : 3
UD San Fernando
08 Sept
UD San Fernando
1 : 3
Orihuela
07 Jun
UD San Fernando
1 : 1
Tamaraceite
Page 1 of 6

Panaderia

(Away)
26 Sept
Real Union Tenerife
2 : 0
Panaderia
19 Sept
Panaderia
3 : 3
Tenerife C
13 Sept
CD Marino
1 : 2
Panaderia
24 May
UD San Fernando
1 : 2
Panaderia
16 May
Panaderia
0 : 2
UD San Fernando
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
UD San Fernando 3
Panaderia 2
Mensajero 1
Tamaraceite 2
Final
UD San Fernando 1
Tamaraceite 4