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UD San Pedro vs Marbelli

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 9 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

54' Event
Rubio D.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 9 2025/2026 game between UD San Pedro and Marbelli finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward UD San Pedro.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
UD San Pedro
15%
Draws
58%
Marbelli
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Marbelli

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Marbelli come out ahead of UD San Pedro on wins alone.
  • Marbelli are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 9 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
UD San Pedro Clean Sheet 18%
Marbelli Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric UD San Pedro Marbelli
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 13 15
Draws 8 7
Losses 8 8
Goals Scored 1.1 1.2
Goals Conceded 1.03 0.77
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 25, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
UD San Pedro vs Marbelli
1:0
Sep 14, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Marbelli vs UD San Pedro
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

UD San Pedro Compare

Top Goalscorer Rubio D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Marbelli Compare

Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

UD San Pedro 12 / 100
Marbelli 86 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
UD San Pedro Marbelli

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Marbelli Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: UD San Pedro scored in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Defensive concern: Marbelli conceded in 60% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 1.00 goals per match.

Solid form: UD San Pedro remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

UD San Pedro VS Marbelli
1.25 Goals Scored 1.38
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.63
75% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

UD San Pedro

(Home)
04 Oct
UD San Pedro
2 : 3
Motril
27 Sept
Churriana de la Vega
1 : 3
UD San Pedro
20 Sept
UD San Pedro
1 : 0
Almeria B
13 Sept
Granada CF B
4 : 0
UD San Pedro
09 Sept
Cacereno
2 : 0
UD San Pedro
Page 1 of 6

Marbelli

(Away)
04 Oct
Malaga Juniors
0 : 1
Marbelli
27 Sept
Marbelli
1 : 0
Torre del Mar
20 Sept
Huetor Vega
1 : 3
Marbelli
13 Sept
Marbelli
2 : 1
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
05 Sept
Mancha
1 : 1
Marbelli
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mijas Las Lagunas 34 19 9 6 46:24 66
2 Motril 34 18 11 5 55:29 65
3 Torre del Mar 34 14 13 7 37:26 55
4 Arenas Armilla 34 15 9 10 38:29 54
5 Churriana de la Vega 34 14 10 10 32:40 52
6 Marbelli 34 14 9 11 36:28 51
7 Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 34 13 11 10 39:38 50
8 UD San Pedro 34 13 10 11 39:37 49
9 Atletico de Porcuna 34 14 4 16 41:39 46
10 Huetor Vega 34 12 9 13 43:42 45
11 Granada CF B 34 10 14 10 49:47 44
12 CD Alhaurino 34 11 10 13 41:41 43
13 Melilla B 34 9 12 13 30:32 39
14 Mancha 34 9 10 15 30:38 37
15 Huetor Tajar 34 9 10 15 40:44 37
16 Martos 34 9 10 15 32:48 37
17 CD Torreperogil 34 9 6 19 24:45 33
18 El Palo 34 6 9 19 28:53 27
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 9 2025/2026 (Play Offs)