Sport Picks

Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 5 2023/2024

Vilassar de Mar

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

UE Castelldefels play Vilassar de Mar in the Tercera RFEF - Group 5 2023/2024. It looks like a close match. Recently, UE Castelldefels averaged 0.97 goals scored and 1.53 conceded. Vilassar de Mar averaged 0.94 goals scored and 1.1 conceded. In past meetings, UE Castelldefels won 2, Vilassar de Mar won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Feb 11, 2024 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.10 for UE Castelldefels and 0.99 for Vilassar de Mar. This points to a Vilassar de Mar double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%

UE Castelldefels

27%

Draws

41%

Vilassar de Mar

Draw rate projection: 27% Favored: Vilassar de Mar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence

UE Castelldefels picked up more points recently compared to Vilassar de Mar.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.10 vs 0.99 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 58%

Over 2.5 Goals 36%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 11%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 39%

UE Castelldefels Clean Sheet 23%

Vilassar de Mar Clean Sheet 14%

First Half Goal 52%

Second Half Goal 55%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	UE Castelldefels	Vilassar de Mar
Matches Played	30	31
Wins	6	8
Draws	7	11
Losses	17	12
Goals Scored	0.97	0.94
Goals Conceded	1.53	1.1

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 11, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 5

UE Castelldefels vs Vilassar de Mar

Possession: 41% - 56% Cards: 3 - 1

0:1

Sep 24, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 5

Vilassar de Mar vs UE Castelldefels

Possession: 40% - 51% Cards: 3 - 1

1:0

Apr 2, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 5

UE Castelldefels vs Vilassar de Mar

Possession: 55% - 50% Cards: 3 - 1

1:0

Nov 27, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 5

Vilassar de Mar vs UE Castelldefels

Possession: 55% - 48% Cards: 2 - 2

0:1

May 1, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 5

Vilassar de Mar vs UE Castelldefels

Possession: 45% - 42% Cards: 0 - 0

0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

UE Castelldefels Compare

Avg xG / game 0

Avg xA / game 0

Vilassar de Mar Compare

Top Goalscorer Puchades N.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.8

Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

UE Castelldefels 33 / 100

Vilassar de Mar 40 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

UE Castelldefels Vilassar de Mar

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Vilassar de Mar or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +33.4%

4.17

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +19.9%

3.33

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

UE Castelldefels attacking → ← attacking Vilassar de Mar

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

UE Castelldefels scored in 57% of their last 30 games.

Vilassar de Mar let in goals in 71% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 0.80 goals.

UE Castelldefels went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Vilassar de Mar lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

25 Points in last 5 35

0.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.88

0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Olot	34	24	7	3	55:20	79
2	L Hospitalet	34	22	3	9	56:28	69
3	Vilassar de Mar	34	17	9	8	41:27	60
4	CF Badalona	34	16	7	11	44:36	55
5	Prat	34	13	12	9	39:30	51
6	UE Tona	34	13	9	12	48:45	48
7	FC Lescala	34	14	6	14	57:59	48
8	Reus FC Reddis	34	12	10	12	31:28	46
9	Montanesa	34	13	7	14	32:39	46
10	FE Grama	34	13	6	15	41:47	45
11	Girona B	34	11	11	12	49:40	44
12	Mollerussa	34	12	7	15	33:46	43
13	San Cristobal CP	34	13	4	17	35:54	43
14	Peralada	34	11	9	14	34:34	42
15	Pobla Mafumet	34	10	8	16	31:39	38
16	FC Vilafranca	34	8	9	17	31:53	33
17	UE Castelldefels	34	7	9	18	30:47	30
18	UE Rapitenca	34	9	3	22	36:51	30