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Stadium Background

Uganda vs Congo

Africa Africa

Africa Cup of Nations 2025 Nelson Mandela National Stadium, Kampala
Uganda Logo

Uganda

2 - 0
FT
Congo Logo

Congo

Our Tip

Match Events

19'
Passi B.
21' Event
Kayondo A.
44'
Sub
Shaban M. In: Ssemugabi J.
Out: Shaban M.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Uganda in this Africa Cup of Nations 2025 tie, finishing 2-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Uganda
30%
Draws
23%
Congo
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Uganda

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / High Confidence
  • Uganda have won more games recently than Congo.
  • Uganda are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • Uganda have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Uganda, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Uganda have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 61.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26%
Uganda Clean Sheet 68%
Congo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Uganda Congo
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 16 3
Draws 3 8
Losses 10 17
Goals Scored 1.25 0.4
Goals Conceded 1 1.4
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.40
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 19, 2024 Africa Cup of Nations
Congo vs Uganda
0:1
Sep 9, 2024 Africa Cup of Nations
Uganda vs Congo
2:0
Nov 12, 2017 World Championship
Congo vs Uganda
1:1
Nov 12, 2016 World Championship
Uganda vs Congo
1:0
Jun 16, 2012 Africa Cup of Nations
Uganda vs Congo
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Uganda Compare

Top Goalscorer Kayondo A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ssemugabi J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Congo Compare

Avg xG / game 0.36
Avg xA / game 0.22

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Uganda 59 / 100
Congo 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Uganda Congo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick UGA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Congo's defensive record shows goals conceded in 86% of 28 matches.

Attacking prowess: Uganda scored in 79% of their last 29 outings.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Congo lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Uganda VS Congo
1.25 Goals Scored 0.4
1 Goals Conceded 1.4
63% Over 1.5 60%
50% Over 2.5 20%
25% Over 3.5 20%

Recent Form & Match History

Uganda

(Home)
30 Dec
Uganda
1 : 3
Nigeria
27 Dec
Uganda
1 : 1
Tanzania
23 Dec
Tunisia
3 : 1
Uganda
18 Nov
Morocco
4 : 0
Uganda
14 Nov
Uganda
2 : 1
Chad
Page 1 of 6

Congo

(Away)
14 Oct
Morocco
1 : 0
Congo
08 Oct
Niger
3 : 1
Congo
05 Sept
Congo
1 : 1
Tanzania
19 Aug
Nigeria
2 : 0
Congo
12 Aug
Senegal
1 : 1
Congo
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Comoros 6 3 3 0 7:4 12
2 Tunisia 6 3 1 2 7:6 10
3 Gambia 6 2 2 2 6:6 8
4 Madagascar 6 0 2 4 4:8 2
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Morocco 6 6 0 0 26:2 18
2 Gabon 6 3 1 2 7:9 10
3 Lesotho 6 1 1 4 2:13 4
4 Central Africa 6 1 0 5 3:14 3
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Egypt 6 4 2 0 12:2 14
2 Botswana 6 2 2 2 4:7 8
3 Mauritania 6 2 1 3 3:6 7
4 Cape Verde 6 1 1 4 3:7 4
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Nigeria 6 3 2 1 9:3 11
2 Benin 6 2 2 2 7:7 8
3 Rwanda 6 2 2 2 5:7 8
4 Libya 6 1 2 3 3:7 5
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 5)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Algeria 6 5 1 0 16:2 16
2 Equatorial Guinea 6 2 2 2 5:8 8
3 Togo 6 1 2 3 7:10 5
4 Liberia 6 1 1 4 4:12 4
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 6)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Angola 6 4 2 0 7:2 14
2 Sudan 6 2 2 2 4:6 8
3 Niger 6 2 1 3 7:6 7
4 Ghana 6 0 3 3 3:7 3
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 7)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Zambia 6 4 1 1 7:4 13
2 Ivory Coast 6 4 0 2 12:3 12
3 Sierra Leone 6 1 2 3 5:10 5
4 Chad 6 0 3 3 1:8 3
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 8)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 D.R. Congo 6 4 0 2 7:3 12
2 Tanzania 6 3 1 2 5:4 10
3 Guinea 6 3 0 3 9:5 9
4 Ethiopia 6 1 1 4 3:12 4
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 9)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mali 6 4 2 0 10:1 14
2 Mozambique 6 3 2 1 9:5 11
3 Guinea Bissau 6 1 2 3 4:6 5
4 Eswatini 6 0 2 4 2:13 2
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 10)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cameroon 6 4 2 0 8:2 14
2 Zimbabwe 6 2 3 1 6:4 9
3 Kenya 6 1 3 2 4:7 6
4 Namibia 6 0 2 4 2:7 2
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 11)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 South Africa 6 4 2 0 16:5 14
2 Uganda 6 4 1 1 8:5 13
3 Congo 6 1 1 4 4:12 4
4 South Sudan 6 1 0 5 6:12 3
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 12)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Senegal 6 5 1 0 10:1 16
2 Burkina Faso 6 3 1 2 10:7 10
3 Burundi 6 1 1 4 4:11 4
4 Malawi 6 1 1 4 6:11 4
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)