Sport Picks

Africa

Africa Cup of Nations 2025 Complexe sportif de Fès, Fès

Uganda

1 - 3

Nigeria

Our Tip

Match Events

Bassey C.

28'

Onuachu P.

Assist: Dele-Bashiru F.

46'

Sub

Omedi D. In: Mukwala S.

Out: Omedi D.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Nigeria in this Africa Cup of Nations 2025 tie, finishing 1-3. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%

Uganda

30%

Draws

47%

Nigeria

Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Nigeria

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence

Form's been kind to Nigeria lately — more wins on the board than Uganda.
Win probability leans Nigeria's way, sitting at 50%.
Nigeria arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
Historical meetings favor Nigeria, who have won 1 of the last 4 encounters.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 59%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%

Uganda Clean Sheet 15%

Nigeria Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Uganda	Nigeria
Matches Played	24	27
Wins	11	15
Draws	3	6
Losses	10	6
Goals Scored	1.21	1.81
Goals Conceded	1.33	1.07
Expected Goals (xG)	0.59	1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 30, 2025 Africa Cup of Nations

Uganda vs Nigeria

1:3

Nov 20, 2018 Friendly International

Nigeria vs Uganda

0:0

Mar 25, 2015 Friendly International

Nigeria vs Uganda

0:1

Mar 13, 1978 Africa Cup of Nations

Uganda vs Nigeria

2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Uganda Compare

Top Goalscorer Mato R.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.45

Avg xA / game 0.29

Nigeria Compare

Top Goalscorer Onyedika R.

2 Goals

Assists Leader Onuachu P.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.42

Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Uganda 23 / 100

Nigeria 59 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Uganda Nigeria

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nigeria Win (2)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No

Correct Score 0:1

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Uganda found the back of the net in 75% of recent matches (24 games).

Defensive concern: Nigeria conceded in 67% of 27 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Uganda stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Uganda VS Nigeria

0.43 Goals Scored 2.13

1 Goals Conceded 0.75

43% Over 1.5 75%

29% Over 2.5 63%

29% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Uganda

(Home)

30 Dec

Uganda

1 : 3

Nigeria

27 Dec

Uganda

1 : 1

Tanzania

23 Dec

Tunisia

3 : 1

Uganda

18 Nov

Morocco

4 : 0

Uganda

14 Nov

Uganda

2 : 1

Chad

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Nigeria

(Away)

10 Jun

Portugal

2 : 1

Nigeria

03 Jun

Poland

2 : 2

Nigeria

30 May

Jamaica

0 : 3

Nigeria

26 May

Nigeria

2 : 0

Zimbabwe

31 Mar

Jordan

2 : 2

Nigeria

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