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Ugyen Academy vs Paro - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Bhutan Bhutan

Premier League
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Jallow M.
7' Event
Sagna R.
12' Event
Mishima Y.

AI Match Summary

Paro in this Premier League matchup, with the score ending 0-10 — backing the pre-match view that favored Paro.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

14%
Ugyen Academy
15%
Draws
71%
Paro
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Paro

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / High Confidence
  • Paro have won more games recently than Ugyen Academy.
  • Model gives Paro a 71% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Paro here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Ugyen Academy Clean Sheet 10%
Paro Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ugyen Academy Paro
Matches Played 32 33
Wins 10 26
Draws 1 3
Losses 21 4
Goals Scored 1.44 3.91
Goals Conceded 2.81 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 0.44 3.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 8, 2026 Premier League
Ugyen Academy vs Paro
0:10
Jun 23, 2026 Premier League
Paro vs Ugyen Academy
11:0
Aug 2, 2025 Premier League
Paro vs Ugyen Academy
3:2
Jun 28, 2025 Premier League
Ugyen Academy vs Paro
0:3
Nov 13, 2023 Premier League
Ugyen Academy vs Paro
1:5

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ugyen Academy Compare

Avg xG / game 0.34
Avg xA / game 0.22

Paro Compare

Top Goalscorer Jallow M.
4 Goals
Assists Leader Asante E.
3 Ast
Avg xG / game 3.35
Avg xA / game 2.05

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ugyen Academy 10 / 100
Paro 85 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ugyen Academy Paro

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Paro Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 7.00 goals as a typical output.

Ugyen Academy scored in 66% of their last 32 games.

Defensive concern: Paro conceded in 55% of 33 recent games.

Ugyen Academy has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Ugyen Academy VS Paro
0.5 Goals Scored 4.13
3.25 Goals Conceded 0.38
50% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Ugyen Academy

(Home)
27 Sept
Tsirang
1 : 4
Ugyen Academy
24 Sept
Ugyen Academy
2 : 4
Drukpa
21 Sept
Thimphu FC
1 : 0
Ugyen Academy
13 Sept
Thimphu City
6 : 0
Ugyen Academy
08 Sept
Ugyen Academy
0 : 10
Paro
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Paro

(Away)
08 Oct
Thimphu City
0 : 2
Paro
03 Oct
Paro
6 : 0
BFF Academy U19
12 Sept
Transport United
2 : 4
Paro
08 Sept
Ugyen Academy
0 : 10
Paro
26 Aug
Paro
7 : 0
Tsirang
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Paro 18 16 1 1 74:12 49
2 Thimphu City 18 12 4 2 49:14 40
3 Thimphu FC 18 10 2 6 27:22 32
4 Transport United 18 9 3 6 28:24 30
5 RTC 18 8 4 6 29:20 28
6 Drukpa 18 6 6 6 36:29 24
7 BFF Academy U19 18 5 5 8 29:45 20
8 Tsirang 18 4 4 10 27:48 16
9 Tensung 18 2 2 14 14:53 8
10 Ugyen Academy 18 2 1 15 15:61 7
Promotion - AFC Challenge League 2027/2028 (Qualification)