Sport Picks

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Ulinzi Stars vs Mahia

Kenya Kenya

Premier League
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Morrison E.
69' Event
Ekandjoum P.
77' Event
Musa S.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League game between Ulinzi Stars and Mahia finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Mahia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Ulinzi Stars
33%
Draws
40%
Mahia
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Mahia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Mahia come out ahead of Ulinzi Stars on wins alone.
  • Model gives Mahia a 40% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Ulinzi Stars Clean Sheet 25%
Mahia Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ulinzi Stars Mahia
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 11 16
Draws 6 9
Losses 13 4
Goals Scored 1.38 0.75
Goals Conceded 1 0.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 0.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 15, 2026 Premier League
Ulinzi Stars vs Mahia
1:3
Nov 2, 2025 Premier League
Mahia vs Ulinzi Stars
1:1
Jun 15, 2025 Premier League
Ulinzi Stars vs Mahia
2:3
Dec 18, 2024 Premier League
Mahia vs Ulinzi Stars
3:0
Feb 10, 2024 Premier League
Mahia vs Ulinzi Stars
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ulinzi Stars Compare

Top Goalscorer Odhiambo F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Mahia Compare

Top Goalscorer Morrison E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ekandjoum P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ulinzi Stars 29 / 100
Mahia 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ulinzi Stars Mahia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick GOR Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ulinzi Stars's goal record stands at 70% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Ulinzi Stars remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Mahia has conceded goals in 59% of their last 29 outings.

Scoring Trends

Ulinzi Stars VS Mahia
1.38 Goals Scored 0.75
1 Goals Conceded 0.5
75% Over 1.5 25%
50% Over 2.5 13%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Ulinzi Stars

(Home)
31 May
Posta Rangers
0 : 1
Ulinzi Stars
27 May
Ulinzi Stars
2 : 0
Tusker
23 May
Ulinzi Stars
2 : 1
Mathare United
13 May
Ulinzi Stars
0 : 2
Leopards
09 May
Shabana
0 : 0
Ulinzi Stars
Page 1 of 6

Mahia

(Away)
24 Jul
APR
0 : 5
Mahia
31 May
Mahia
0 : 1
Nairobi United
27 May
Mara Sugar
0 : 0
Mahia
17 May
Muranga
1 : 3
Mahia
10 May
Mahia
1 : 1
Police FC
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Mahia34209550:2269
2Leopards34197844:2864
3Police FC341316531:2155
4Nairobi United341411944:3453
5Shabana3414101035:3452
6Kakamega Homeboyz341213947:3749
7KCB341391236:3748
8Muranga341381342:4147
9Tusker341361527:3245
10APS Bomet3411111237:3544
11Mara Sugar3410141030:3044
12Bandari34917826:2644
13Ulinzi Stars341181534:3741
14Mathare United341181531:3541
15Posta Rangers349131231:4040
16Kariobangi Sharks348141230:3338
17Bidco United345121719:4027
18Sofapaka343102119:5119
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2026/2027 (Qualification)
Relegation - Super League 2026/2027 (Main)