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Ulinzi Stars vs Sofapaka

Kenya Kenya

Premier League
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Okoth P.
77' Event
Okoth P.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League game between Ulinzi Stars and Sofapaka finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ulinzi Stars.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Ulinzi Stars
30%
Draws
12%
Sofapaka
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Ulinzi Stars

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Ulinzi Stars carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Ulinzi Stars are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Ulinzi Stars Clean Sheet 68%
Sofapaka Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ulinzi Stars Sofapaka
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 11 2
Draws 6 9
Losses 13 19
Goals Scored 1.07 0.53
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.53
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 29, 2026 Premier League
Ulinzi Stars vs Sofapaka
2:0
Nov 24, 2025 Premier League
Sofapaka vs Ulinzi Stars
1:3
Apr 4, 2025 Premier League
Ulinzi Stars vs Sofapaka
0:1
Dec 7, 2024 Premier League
Sofapaka vs Ulinzi Stars
4:1
Apr 13, 2024 Premier League
Sofapaka vs Ulinzi Stars
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ulinzi Stars Compare

Top Goalscorer Okoth P.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sofapaka Compare

Avg xG / game 0.63
Avg xA / game 0.38

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ulinzi Stars 95 / 100
Sofapaka 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ulinzi Stars Sofapaka

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ULI Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Ulinzi Stars scored in 70% of their last 30 outings.

Sofapaka let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Ulinzi Stars has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Ulinzi Stars VS Sofapaka
1.38 Goals Scored 0.5
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Ulinzi Stars

(Home)
31 May
Posta Rangers
0 : 1
Ulinzi Stars
27 May
Ulinzi Stars
2 : 0
Tusker
23 May
Ulinzi Stars
2 : 1
Mathare United
13 May
Ulinzi Stars
0 : 2
Leopards
09 May
Shabana
0 : 0
Ulinzi Stars
Page 1 of 6

Sofapaka

(Away)
31 May
Kariobangi Sharks
6 : 0
Sofapaka
27 May
Sofapaka
1 : 2
KCB
24 May
Sofapaka
1 : 1
Shabana
11 May
Posta Rangers
3 : 0
Sofapaka
02 May
Sofapaka
2 : 2
Mathare United
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mahia 34 20 9 5 50:22 69
2 Leopards 34 19 7 8 44:28 64
3 Police FC 34 13 16 5 31:21 55
4 Nairobi United 34 14 11 9 44:34 53
5 Shabana 34 14 10 10 35:34 52
6 Kakamega Homeboyz 34 12 13 9 47:37 49
7 KCB 34 13 9 12 36:37 48
8 Muranga 34 13 8 13 42:41 47
9 Tusker 34 13 6 15 27:32 45
10 APS Bomet 34 11 11 12 37:35 44
11 Mara Sugar 34 10 14 10 30:30 44
12 Bandari 34 9 17 8 26:26 44
13 Ulinzi Stars 34 11 8 15 34:37 41
14 Mathare United 34 11 8 15 31:35 41
15 Posta Rangers 34 9 13 12 31:40 40
16 Kariobangi Sharks 34 8 14 12 30:33 38
17 Bidco United 34 5 12 17 19:40 27
18 Sofapaka 34 3 10 21 19:51 19
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Relegation - Super League 2026/2027 (Main)