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Ulm vs FC 08 Homburg - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Germany Germany

Regionalliga Sudwest Donaustadion, Ulm
Sun, Oct 25, 2026
VS
01:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Ulm host FC 08 Homburg in the Regionalliga Sudwest. This one's hard to separate. Ulm have averaged 1.54 scored and 1.82 conceded recently, against FC 08 Homburg's 1.79 scored and 1.38 conceded. Past meetings favor FC 08 Homburg slightly — 1-2-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Apr 15, 2023, ending 0:0. xG projections (1.25 - 1.63) back FC 08 Homburg to edge this. The model calls this a Draw — both sides look evenly matched.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Ulm
35%
Draws
35%
FC 08 Homburg
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • FC 08 Homburg have won more games recently than Ulm.
  • Model gives Ulm a 36% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.6%
Ulm Clean Sheet 14%
FC 08 Homburg Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ulm FC 08 Homburg
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 9 14
Draws 8 6
Losses 11 9
Goals Scored 1.54 1.79
Goals Conceded 1.82 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 15, 2023 Regionalliga Sudwest
Ulm vs FC 08 Homburg
0:0
Oct 9, 2022 Regionalliga Sudwest
FC 08 Homburg vs Ulm
1:4
Dec 4, 2021 Regionalliga Sudwest
Ulm vs FC 08 Homburg
1:2
Aug 20, 2021 Regionalliga Sudwest
FC 08 Homburg vs Ulm
3:3
Jun 12, 2021 Regionalliga Sudwest
Ulm vs FC 08 Homburg
0:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ulm 35 / 100
FC 08 Homburg 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ulm FC 08 Homburg

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

FC 08 Homburg has conceded goals in 93% of their last 29 outings.

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Ulm's goal record stands at 75% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Recent resilience: Ulm stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ulm VS FC 08 Homburg
1.38 Goals Scored 1.38
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Ulm

(Home)
10 Oct
Ulm
1 : 0
Eintracht Frankfurt II
03 Oct
Kassel
2 : 2
Ulm
26 Sept
Ulm
0 : 1
Eintracht Trier
19 Sept
Sandhausen
2 : 2
Ulm
12 Sept
Ulm
1 : 2
FSV Frankfurt
Page 1 of 6

FC 08 Homburg

(Away)
09 Oct
Kickers Offenbach
2 : 2
FC 08 Homburg
03 Oct
FC 08 Homburg
1 : 1
Fulda-Lehnerz
26 Sept
TSV Steinbach Haiger
1 : 0
FC 08 Homburg
19 Sept
FC 08 Homburg
2 : 2
Kassel
12 Sept
Eintracht Frankfurt II
1 : 2
FC 08 Homburg
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Freiberg 11 6 5 0 28:12 23
2 Aalen 11 6 3 2 20:11 21
3 Kickers Offenbach 11 6 2 3 22:15 20
4 Stutt. Kickers 11 6 2 3 19:15 20
5 VfR Mannheim 10 4 5 1 16:9 17
6 Freiburg II 10 4 4 2 19:13 16
7 TSV Steinbach Haiger 11 4 4 3 19:15 16
8 FC 08 Homburg 11 4 4 3 15:15 16
9 Sandhausen 11 4 4 3 19:21 16
10 Eintracht Trier 11 5 1 5 11:15 16
11 Kassel 11 4 2 5 20:21 14
12 FSV Frankfurt 10 3 3 4 15:16 12
13 Eintracht Frankfurt II 9 3 1 5 11:13 10
14 Astoria Walldorf 11 2 4 5 16:19 10
15 Mainz II 11 3 1 7 11:22 10
16 Kaiserslautern II 10 2 3 5 9:21 9
17 Ulm 11 1 5 5 14:21 8
18 Fulda-Lehnerz 11 1 3 7 14:24 6
Promotion - 3. Liga 2027/2028 (Main)