Sport Picks
Ulyanovsk vs Shinnik Yaroslavl Prediction & H2H Stats
Russia
FNL Trud Stadium, Ulyanovsk 
Match Events
14'
14'
Karaev M.
31'
31'
Azyavin I.
34'
34'
Samoylov D.
AI Match Summary
Shinnik Yaroslavl in this FNL matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Shinnik Yaroslavl.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
35%
35%
30%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
35%
/ Low Confidence
- Shinnik Yaroslavl have won more games recently than Ulyanovsk.
- Ulyanovsk are the model's pick here, at 36%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- Shinnik Yaroslavl have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Ulyanovsk Clean Sheet 17%
Shinnik Yaroslavl Clean Sheet 13%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Ulyanovsk | Shinnik Yaroslavl |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 9 | 11 |
| Draws | 7 | 15 |
| Losses | 13 | 3 |
| Goals Scored | 1 | 1.34 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.24 | 0.79 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.13 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 22, 2026 FNL
Ulyanovsk vs Shinnik Yaroslavl
1:3
Apr 12, 2026 FNL
Ulyanovsk vs Shinnik Yaroslavl
0:1
Sep 7, 2025 FNL
Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Ulyanovsk
2:0
Feb 21, 2024 Club Friendly
Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Ulyanovsk
1:0
Apr 8, 2023 FNL
Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Ulyanovsk
2:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Ulyanovsk Compare
Top Goalscorer Kasyanov I.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56
Shinnik Yaroslavl Compare
Top Goalscorer Azyavin I.
1 Goals Assists Leader Samoylov D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Ulyanovsk 36 / 100
Shinnik Yaroslavl 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Ulyanovsk Shinnik Yaroslavl
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Ulyanovsk scored in 62% of their last 29 games.
Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.
Recent resilience: Ulyanovsk stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Shinnik Yaroslavl's defensive record shows goals conceded in 52% of 29 matches.
Scoring Trends
Ulyanovsk VS Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.38 Goals Scored 1.5
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Ulyanovsk
(Home) 04 Oct
Veles Moscow
1 : 2 Ulyanovsk
26 Sept
Ulyanovsk
0 : 1 Leningradets
18 Sept
Ulyanovsk
0 : 1 S. Kostroma
13 Sept
Ufa
2 : 2 Ulyanovsk
09 Sept
FC Volgar-Astrakhan
0 : 1 Ulyanovsk
Page 1 of 6
26 Sept
Ulyanovsk
0 : 1 Leningradets
18 Sept
Ulyanovsk
0 : 1 S. Kostroma
05 Sept
Ulyanovsk
3 : 0 Arsenal Tula
22 Aug
Ulyanovsk
1 : 3 Shinnik Yaroslavl
02 Aug
Ulyanovsk
0 : 2 Chelyabinsk
Page 1 of 3
Shinnik Yaroslavl
(Away) 27 Sept
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0 : 0 SKA Khabarovsk
18 Sept
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0 : 1 Kamaz
14 Sept
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1 : 1 Ural
10 Sept
Shinnik Yaroslavl
2 : 0 Torpedo Moscow
05 Sept
Shinnik Yaroslavl
2 : 2 R. Volgograd
Page 1 of 6
30 Aug
Yenisey
0 : 0 Shinnik Yaroslavl
22 Aug
Ulyanovsk
1 : 3 Shinnik Yaroslavl
14 Aug
Neftekhimik
0 : 2 Shinnik Yaroslavl
02 Aug
Pari Nizhny Novgorod
3 : 0 Shinnik Yaroslavl
26 Jul
Torpedo Moscow
1 : 1 Shinnik Yaroslavl
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pari Nizhny Novgorod | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 36:14 | 31 |
| 2 | Ural | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 20:6 | 25 |
| 3 | S. Kostroma | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 16:10 | 24 |
| 4 | PFC Sochi | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 21:14 | 23 |
| 5 | Veles Moscow | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 17:16 | 23 |
| 6 | Torpedo Moscow | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 21:9 | 21 |
| 7 | Ufa | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 16:13 | 18 |
| 8 | R. Volgograd | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 20:14 | 17 |
| 9 | Shinnik Yaroslavl | 12 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 15:13 | 16 |
| 10 | Yenisey | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 15:20 | 14 |
| 11 | Ulyanovsk | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 16:19 | 14 |
| 12 | Arsenal Tula | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 12:22 | 13 |
| 13 | Leningradets | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 10:20 | 13 |
| 14 | Neftekhimik | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 7:15 | 12 |
| 15 | Chelyabinsk | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 13:19 | 12 |
| 16 | Kamaz | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 11:19 | 9 |
| 17 | Tekstilshtik | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 8:19 | 7 |
| 18 | SKA Khabarovsk | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 11:23 | 6 |
Promotion - Premier League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Premier League (Relegation)
