Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Umm-Salal vs Al Ahli

Qatar Qatar

QSL 2025/2026 Thani bin Jassim Stadium, Doha
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Yassine I.
11'
Baidoo M.
43'
Yassine I.

AI Match Summary

The QSL 2025/2026 game between Umm-Salal and Al Ahli finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Al Ahli.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Umm-Salal
20%
Draws
29%
Al Ahli
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Umm-Salal

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Al Ahli haven't matched Umm-Salal's recent run of results.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular QSL 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 85%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 85%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Umm-Salal Clean Sheet 20%
Al Ahli Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Umm-Salal Al Ahli
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 11 10
Draws 4 5
Losses 14 13
Goals Scored 1.76 1.57
Goals Conceded 2.41 1.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 27, 2026 QSL
Umm-Salal vs Al Ahli
1:3
Feb 15, 2026 Emir Cup
Al Ahli vs Umm-Salal
2:4
Dec 29, 2025 QSL
Al Ahli vs Umm-Salal
0:3
Apr 11, 2025 QSL
Al Ahli vs Umm-Salal
0:1
Nov 23, 2024 QSL
Umm-Salal vs Al Ahli
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Umm-Salal Compare

Top Goalscorer Tannane O.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Al Ahli Compare

Top Goalscorer Yassine I.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Vlap M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Umm-Salal 32 / 100
Al Ahli 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Umm-Salal Al Ahli

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Ahli let in goals in 86% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Umm-Salal scored in 76% of their last 29 games.

Umm-Salal has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Umm-Salal VS Al Ahli
0.88 Goals Scored 2
2.5 Goals Conceded 2.5
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 100%
38% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Umm-Salal

(Home)
21 Sept
Umm-Salal
1 : 0
Al-Kharitiyath
07 Sept
Umm-Salal
1 : 5
Al Khor
30 Aug
Al Mesaimeer
1 : 2
Umm-Salal
25 Aug
Umm-Salal
1 : 1
Qatar U23
08 Aug
Sporting Lokeren
5 : 0
Umm-Salal
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Al Ahli

(Away)
20 Sept
Al Ahli
0 : 1
Al-Shahaniya
11 Sept
Al Rayyan
3 : 0
Al Ahli
03 Sept
Al Ahli
1 : 0
Qatar SC
28 Aug
Al Ahli
3 : 3
Lusail
22 Aug
Al-Sadd
3 : 1
Al Ahli
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al-Sadd 22 14 3 5 56:30 45
2 Shamal 22 12 4 6 39:28 40
3 Al Rayyan 22 11 5 6 46:32 38
4 Al-Gharafa 22 11 3 8 36:36 36
5 Al-Duhail 22 9 6 7 40:27 33
6 Al Arabi (Qatar) 22 9 5 8 37:41 32
7 Al Wakra 22 8 6 8 36:34 30
8 Qatar SC 22 8 5 9 32:36 29
9 Al Ahli 22 8 2 12 34:43 26
10 Al Sailiya 22 6 4 12 25:38 22
11 Al-Shahaniya 22 6 3 13 22:39 21
12 Umm-Salal 22 6 2 14 37:56 20
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - AFC Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 (Main)
Relegation - QSL 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - QSL 2 (Main)