Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Umm-Salal vs Al Ahli

Qatar Qatar

QSL 2025/2026 Thani bin Jassim Stadium, Doha
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Yassine I.
11'
Baidoo M.
43'
Yassine I.

AI Match Summary

The QSL 2025/2026 game between Umm-Salal and Al Ahli finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Al Ahli.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

18%
Umm-Salal
22%
Draws
60%
Al Ahli
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Al Ahli

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Al Ahli have managed 1.75 goals a game lately — Umm-Salal are scoring more at 1.88.
  • 60% — that's where the model lands on Al Ahli taking it.
  • Regular QSL 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79.4%
Umm-Salal Clean Sheet 20%
Al Ahli Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Umm-Salal Al Ahli
Matches Played 30 27
Wins 11 11
Draws 4 5
Losses 15 11
Goals Scored 1.88 1.75
Goals Conceded 2.13 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.13 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 27, 2026 QSL
Umm-Salal vs Al Ahli
1:3
Feb 15, 2026 Emir Cup
Al Ahli vs Umm-Salal
2:4
Dec 29, 2025 QSL
Al Ahli vs Umm-Salal
0:3
Apr 11, 2025 QSL
Al Ahli vs Umm-Salal
0:1
Nov 23, 2024 QSL
Umm-Salal vs Al Ahli
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Umm-Salal Compare

Top Goalscorer Tannane O.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Al Ahli Compare

Top Goalscorer Yassine I.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Vlap M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Umm-Salal 20 / 100
Al Ahli 56 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Umm-Salal Al Ahli

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AHL Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Umm-Salal scored in 83% of their last 30 games.

Al Ahli let in goals in 89% of their last 27 matches.

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Difficult form: Al Ahli registered 1 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Umm-Salal VS Al Ahli
1.88 Goals Scored 1.75
2.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Umm-Salal

(Home)
01 May
Al-Gharafa
2 : 1
Umm-Salal
27 Apr
Umm-Salal
1 : 3
Al Ahli
08 Apr
Al Rayyan
3 : 0
Umm-Salal
04 Apr
Shamal
3 : 2
Umm-Salal
28 Mar
Al Rayyan
4 : 3
Umm-Salal
Page 1 of 6

Al Ahli

(Away)
27 Apr
Umm-Salal
1 : 3
Al Ahli
22 Apr
Al Nassr
5 : 1
Al Ahli
19 Apr
Al Ahli
3 : 1
Al Hussein
08 Apr
Al Ahli
2 : 1
Al-Duhail
03 Apr
Al Ahli
2 : 2
Al Sailiya
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Al-Sadd22143556:3045
2Shamal22124639:2840
3Al Rayyan22115646:3238
4Al-Gharafa22113836:3636
5Al-Duhail2296740:2733
6Al Arabi (Qatar)2295837:4132
7Al Wakra2286836:3430
8Qatar SC2285932:3629
9Al Ahli22821234:4326
10Al Sailiya22641225:3822
11Al-Shahaniya22631322:3921
12Umm-Salal22621437:5620
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - AFC Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 (Main)
Relegation - QSL 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - QSL 2 (Main)