Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Umraniyespor vs Sakaryaspor

Turkey Turkey

1. Lig 2025/2026 Ümraniye Belediyesi Şehir Stadyumu, Istanbul
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Celik B.
Assist: Bulbul A. T.
45'
Bekaroglu B.
46'
Sub
Kocaman A. In: Terzi E.
Out: Kocaman A.

AI Match Summary

Umraniyespor in this 1. Lig 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Umraniyespor.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Umraniyespor
6%
Draws
4%
Sakaryaspor
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Umraniyespor

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Umraniyespor lately — more wins on the board than Sakaryaspor.
  • Win probability leans Umraniyespor's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular 1. Lig 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Umraniyespor Clean Sheet 68%
Sakaryaspor Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Umraniyespor Sakaryaspor
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 11 5
Draws 5 8
Losses 14 17
Goals Scored 1.25 1.38
Goals Conceded 1 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 8, 2026 1. Lig
Umraniyespor vs Sakaryaspor
2:0
Nov 29, 2025 1. Lig
Sakaryaspor vs Umraniyespor
1:1
Feb 23, 2025 1. Lig
Umraniyespor vs Sakaryaspor
0:0
Sep 29, 2024 1. Lig
Sakaryaspor vs Umraniyespor
1:3
Jan 28, 2024 1. Lig
Umraniyespor vs Sakaryaspor
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Umraniyespor Compare

Top Goalscorer Celik B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kosoko T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Sakaryaspor Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Umraniyespor 95 / 100
Sakaryaspor 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Umraniyespor Sakaryaspor

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick UMR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sakaryaspor's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 30 matches.

Umraniyespor's goal record stands at 67% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Difficult form: Sakaryaspor registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Umraniyespor VS Sakaryaspor
1.25 Goals Scored 1.38
1 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Umraniyespor

(Home)
17 Jul
Umraniyespor
1 : 5
Galatasaray
02 May
Umraniyespor
1 : 4
Keciorengucu
25 Apr
Adanademirspor
1 : 3
Umraniyespor
19 Apr
Umraniyespor
1 : 2
Vanspor FK
13 Apr
Amedspor
2 : 2
Umraniyespor
Page 1 of 6

Sakaryaspor

(Away)
01 May
Manisa FK
5 : 0
Sakaryaspor
26 Apr
Sakaryaspor
0 : 4
Corum FK
18 Apr
Hatayspor
1 : 1
Sakaryaspor
13 Apr
Sakaryaspor
1 : 2
Erokspor
08 Apr
Umraniyespor
2 : 0
Sakaryaspor
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Erzurumspor FK382312382:2781
2Amedspor382111681:4274
3Erokspor382111681:3574
4Corum FK38218963:3971
5Bodrumspor3818101071:3964
6Pendikspor381615758:3363
7Keciorengucu3816121073:4360
8Bandirmaspor3816121047:3460
9Manisa FK381671557:5655
10Sivasspor3814111347:4353
11Istanbulspor AS3813131257:5552
12Sariyer381571644:4452
13Igdir FK3813111452:5450
14Vanspor FK3813101552:4749
15Boluspor381461861:5748
16Umraniyespor381371847:5146
17Serik Spor381162144:7539
18Sakaryaspor388102045:7234
19Hatayspor38282833:10214
20Adanademirspor38133422:169-54
Promotion - Super Lig (Main)
Promotion - 1. Lig 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - 1. Lig 2025/2026 (Play Offs)