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UNAM Pumas vs Cruz Azul Prediction & H2H Stats

Mexico Mexico

Liga MX 2025/2026 Estadio Olímpico Universitario, Mexico City
Our Tip

Match Events

31' Event
Morales R.
36'
Sub
Paradela J. In: Fernandez G.
Out: Paradela J.
45'
Lopez R.

AI Match Summary

Cruz Azul in this Liga MX 2025/2026 tie, finishing 1-2. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
UNAM Pumas
30%
Draws
39%
Cruz Azul
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Cruz Azul

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Cruz Azul have won more games recently than UNAM Pumas.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • Cruz Azul arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Cruz Azul, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36%
UNAM Pumas Clean Sheet 16%
Cruz Azul Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric UNAM Pumas Cruz Azul
Matches Played 32 36
Wins 13 17
Draws 9 11
Losses 10 8
Goals Scored 1.59 1.69
Goals Conceded 1.34 1.36
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 25, 2026 Liga MX
UNAM Pumas vs Cruz Azul
1:2
May 22, 2026 Liga MX
Cruz Azul vs UNAM Pumas
0:0
Mar 15, 2026 Liga MX
UNAM Pumas vs Cruz Azul
2:2
Nov 9, 2025 Liga MX
Cruz Azul vs UNAM Pumas
2:3
Oct 11, 2025 Club Friendly
Cruz Azul vs UNAM Pumas
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

UNAM Pumas Compare

Top Goalscorer Morales R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Cruz Azul Compare

Top Goalscorer Rotondi C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

UNAM Pumas 36 / 100
Cruz Azul 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
UNAM Pumas Cruz Azul

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Cruz Azul Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Cruz Azul has conceded goals in 81% of their last 36 outings.

UNAM Pumas scored in 72% of their last 32 games.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Recent resilience: UNAM Pumas stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

UNAM Pumas VS Cruz Azul
0.75 Goals Scored 1.5
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

UNAM Pumas

(Home)
27 Sept
UNAM Pumas
2 : 3
Atletico San Luis
19 Sept
Atlas
1 : 1
UNAM Pumas
14 Sept
Guadalajara Chivas
3 : 0
UNAM Pumas
11 Sept
UNAM Pumas
3 : 1
Club Leon
29 Aug
Club Tijuana
2 : 0
UNAM Pumas
Page 1 of 7

Cruz Azul

(Away)
02 Oct
Club America
0 : 0
Cruz Azul
26 Sept
Cruz Azul
3 : 3
Toluca
20 Sept
Monterrey
1 : 0
Cruz Azul
17 Sept
Inter Miami
2 : 0
Cruz Azul
13 Sept
Cruz Azul
4 : 3
Club America
Page 1 of 8

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
UNAM Pumas 6
Club America 6
Pachuca 3
Toluca 0
Guadalajara Chivas 3
Tigres UANL 3
Cruz Azul 4
Atlas 2
Semi-finals
UNAM Pumas 1
Pachuca 1
Guadalajara Chivas 3
Cruz Azul 4
Final
UNAM Pumas 1
Cruz Azul 2