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Uniao ABC vs Comercial MS

Brazil Brazil

Campeonato Sul-Matogrossense 2022
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AI Match Summary

The Campeonato Sul-Matogrossense 2022 game between Uniao ABC and Comercial MS finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Comercial MS.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%
Uniao ABC
35%
Draws
41%
Comercial MS
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Comercial MS

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Comercial MS come out ahead of Uniao ABC on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Comercial MS's way, sitting at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 72.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
Uniao ABC Clean Sheet 25%
Comercial MS Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Uniao ABC Comercial MS
Matches Played 30 36
Wins 6 12
Draws 4 8
Losses 20 16
Goals Scored 0.73 1.39
Goals Conceded 1.83 1.47
Expected Goals (xG) 1.49 0.85
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 11, 2026 Sul-Matogrossense 2
Comercial MS vs Uniao ABC
1:1
Feb 19, 2022 Sul-Matogrossense
Uniao ABC vs Comercial MS
1:3
Feb 3, 2022 Sul-Matogrossense
Comercial MS vs Uniao ABC
0:1
May 16, 2021 Sul-Matogrossense
Uniao ABC vs Comercial MS
2:2
Apr 29, 2021 Sul-Matogrossense
Comercial MS vs Uniao ABC
4:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Uniao ABC 25 / 100
Comercial MS 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Uniao ABC Comercial MS

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Comercial MS Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Comercial MS's defensive record shows goals conceded in 89% of 36 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Uniao ABC has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Attacking prowess: Uniao ABC scored in 50% of their last 30 outings.

Scoring Trends

Uniao ABC VS Comercial MS
0.86 Goals Scored 1.13
0.57 Goals Conceded 2.13
57% Over 1.5 88%
14% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Uniao ABC

(Home)
02 Aug
Aquidauanense
2 : 0
Uniao ABC
25 Jul
Uniao ABC
0 : 0
7 de Setembro
18 Jul
Uniao ABC
0 : 0
Misto
11 Jul
Comercial MS
1 : 1
Uniao ABC
04 Jul
Uniao ABC
3 : 0
EC Campo Grande
Page 1 of 6

Comercial MS

(Away)
02 Aug
Comercial MS
2 : 0
Esporte Clube Taveiropolis
25 Jul
Comercial MS
0 : 1
Misto
18 Jul
EC Campo Grande
1 : 3
Comercial MS
11 Jul
Comercial MS
1 : 1
Uniao ABC
06 Jul
Sao Gabriel MS
1 : 3
Comercial MS
Page 1 of 8

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Costa Rica 8 7 0 1 16:4 21
2 Chapadao 8 4 1 3 10:9 13
3 Operario MS 8 3 3 2 13:7 12
4 Comercial MS 8 2 2 4 9:12 8
5 Uniao ABC 8 1 0 7 3:19 3
Promotion - Campeonato Sul-Matogrossense 2022 (Second stage)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Aquidauanense 8 4 1 3 12:8 13
2 Dourados 8 3 4 1 6:4 13
3 Naviraiense 8 3 3 2 11:7 12
4 Coxim 8 3 1 4 11:19 10
5 Aguia Negra 8 1 3 4 8:10 6
Promotion - Campeonato Sul-Matogrossense 2022 (Second stage)