Sport Picks

Brazil

Serie D 2025 Estádio Mirandão

Match Events

45'

Michael

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Uniao Carmolandense host Lagarto in the Serie D 2025. Little to choose between these two on current form. Lagarto have shipped 2.13 goals a game lately, while Uniao Carmolandense have conceded 0.83 and scored 1.5. Past meetings favor Uniao Carmolandense slightly — 1-1-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Jul 27, 2025, ending 1:0. The numbers (1.81 xG vs 1.04) point toward Uniao Carmolandense. Uniao Carmolandense in a double chance market carries the safer edge.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%

Uniao Carmolandense

22%

Draws

18%

Lagarto

Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Uniao Carmolandense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence

Lagarto has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Uniao Carmolandense.
Model forecasts a 60% win probability edge for Uniao Carmolandense.
League standings and seasonal metrics in Serie D 2025 provide steady trend data.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%

Over 1.5 Goals 94%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 6%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 22%

Uniao Carmolandense Clean Sheet 68%

Lagarto Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Uniao Carmolandense	Lagarto
Matches Played	28	34
Wins	12	14
Draws	7	10
Losses	9	10
Goals Scored	1.5	1.25
Goals Conceded	0.83	2.13
Expected Goals (xG)	1.50	1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.83	2.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 27, 2025 Serie D

Uniao Carmolandense vs Lagarto

Possession: 40% - 51% Cards: 1 - 1

1:0

Apr 19, 2025 Serie D

Lagarto vs Uniao Carmolandense

Possession: 58% - 57% Cards: 1 - 3

2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Uniao Carmolandense Compare

Top Goalscorer Michael

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.15

Avg xA / game 0.75

Lagarto Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14

Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Uniao Carmolandense 68 / 100

Lagarto 18 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Uniao Carmolandense Lagarto

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick UNI Win (1)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 1:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Uniao Carmolandense scored in 79% of their last 28 games.

Lagarto let in goals in 71% of their last 34 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Uniao Carmolandense went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Lagarto lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Uniao Carmolandense VS Lagarto

1.5 Goals Scored 1.25

0.83 Goals Conceded 2.13

100% Over 1.5 88%

33% Over 2.5 75%

0% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tuna Luso	14	8	3	3	24:10	27
2	Manauara	14	7	5	2	27:11	26
3	Manaus FC	14	6	5	3	21:17	23
4	Independencia Futebol Clube	14	6	3	5	18:19	21
5	Aguia De Maraba	14	5	5	4	22:14	20
6	Trem	14	5	3	6	23:24	18
7	Gremio Atletico Sampaio	14	4	3	7	17:24	15
8	SC Humaita	14	1	1	12	12:45	4

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	AE Altos	14	7	5	2	22:14	26
2	Imperatriz	14	7	3	4	17:15	24
3	Sampaio Correa	14	5	6	3	17:11	21
4	Maranhao	14	4	7	3	18:12	19
5	Iguatu	14	5	3	6	15:15	18
6	Tocantinopolis	14	3	6	5	11:17	15
7	Parnahyba	14	3	5	6	16:22	14
8	Maracana	14	3	3	8	12:22	12

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	America RN	14	8	3	3	21:9	27
2	Santa Cruz	14	8	3	3	20:10	27
3	Central SC	14	7	5	2	15:7	26
4	Ferroviario	14	5	3	6	15:19	18
5	Horizonte	14	5	2	7	14:17	17
6	Santa Cruz de Natal	14	5	2	7	13:20	17
7	Treze PB	14	4	1	9	7:20	13
8	Sousa	14	3	3	8	11:14	12

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	ASA	14	9	4	1	27:8	31
2	Lagarto	14	7	2	5	20:16	23
3	Sergipe	14	6	4	4	16:10	22
4	Juazeirense	14	6	4	4	12:15	22
5	Uniao Carmolandense	14	5	4	5	14:16	19
6	Jequie	14	4	4	6	15:16	16
7	Barcelona FC	14	2	5	7	9:20	11
8	SC Penedense	14	1	5	8	5:17	8

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Aparecidense	14	10	2	2	32:12	32
2	Ceilandia	14	8	4	2	23:14	28
3	Luverdense	14	7	4	3	14:12	25
4	Mixto	14	6	6	2	22:13	24
5	Capital	14	4	5	5	14:12	17
6	Goiania	14	2	4	8	12:22	10
7	Goianesia	14	1	5	8	11:22	8
8	Porto Velho	14	1	4	9	9:30	7

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Portuguesa	14	9	3	2	22:13	30
2	Rio Branco ES	14	8	2	4	19:9	26
3	Agua Santa	14	6	3	5	20:18	21
4	Marica	14	5	4	5	14:14	19
5	Pouso Alegre	14	5	2	7	13:18	17
6	Porto Vitoria	14	4	5	5	14:13	17
7	Nova Iguacu	14	3	6	5	13:16	15
8	Boavista	14	2	3	9	9:23	9

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Internacional de Limeira	14	9	3	2	21:7	30
2	Cianorte	14	6	4	4	22:17	22
3	Goiatuba EC	14	6	4	4	21:16	22
4	FC Cascavel	14	5	6	3	15:15	21
5	Uberlandia	14	4	4	6	21:20	16
6	Monte Azul	14	3	5	6	13:18	14
7	Operario MS	14	3	5	6	13:22	14
8	Itabirito	14	1	7	6	11:22	10

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Barra FC (Santa Catarina)	14	8	2	4	20:10	26
2	EC Sao Jose (PA)	14	7	5	2	21:11	26
3	Joinville	14	6	3	5	11:11	21
4	Marcilio Dias	14	5	6	3	17:15	21
5	Guarany de Bage	14	5	4	5	11:14	19
6	Brasil de Pelotas	14	5	1	8	11:12	16
7	Sao Luiz	14	4	1	9	10:20	13
8	Azuriz	14	3	4	7	6:14	13