Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Uniao de Palmas vs Alvorada

Brazil Brazil

Tocantinense 2 2024
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Uniao de Palmas play Alvorada in the Tocantinense 2 2024. It looks like a close match. Recently, Uniao de Palmas averaged 1.14 goals scored and 2.71 conceded. Alvorada averaged 1.45 goals scored and 1.65 conceded. In past meetings, Uniao de Palmas won 0, Alvorada won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Oct 25, 2025 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.13 for Uniao de Palmas and 2.00 for Alvorada. This points to a Alvorada double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Uniao de Palmas
21%
Draws
52%
Alvorada
Draw rate projection: 21% Favored: Alvorada

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

81% / High Confidence
  • Uniao de Palmas picked up more points recently compared to Alvorada.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.13 vs 2.00 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 75%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 89%
Over 2.5 Goals 75%
Over 3.5 Goals 45%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67%
Uniao de Palmas Clean Sheet 10%
Alvorada Clean Sheet 13%
First Half Goal 80%
Second Half Goal 85%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Uniao de Palmas Alvorada
Matches Played 14 20
Wins 3 6
Draws 1 6
Losses 10 8
Goals Scored 1.14 1.45
Goals Conceded 2.71 1.65
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.25 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 25, 2025 Tocantinense 2
Uniao de Palmas vs Alvorada
1:1
Oct 26, 2024 Tocantinense 2
Uniao de Palmas vs Alvorada
1:3

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Uniao de Palmas 26 / 100
Alvorada 49 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Uniao de Palmas Alvorada

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Alvorada or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +42%
5.26
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +8.7%
1.45
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Uniao de Palmas attacking → ← attacking Alvorada

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Uniao de Palmas scored in 79% of their last 14 games.

Alvorada let in goals in 80% of their last 20 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Uniao de Palmas went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Alvorada lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

10 Points in last 5 24
1.13 Goals expected (xG) 1.75
2.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Batalhao642022:514
2Interporto633016:512
3Araguaia (TO)63219:511
4Sao Jose (TO)632111:1011
5Alvorada62137:97
6Taquarussu61054:213
7Uniao de Palmas60064:180
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Bela Vista-TO541017:113
2SD Sparta532010:211
3Guarai SC530212:69
4Araguacema521210:77
5Arsenal (TO)40041:90
6Colinas40041:260