Sport Picks
Uniao Sao Joao vs Comercial - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Brazil
Copa Paulista 
Match Events
38'
38'
Bruninho
74'
74'
Filipinho
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 1-1. This leg finished 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
47%
30%
23%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Uniao Sao Joao
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
47%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Comercial lately — more wins on the board than Uniao Sao Joao.
- 47% — that's where the model lands on Uniao Sao Joao taking it.
- Comercial arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Uniao Sao Joao, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- History favors Uniao Sao Joao here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Uniao Sao Joao Clean Sheet 68%
Comercial Clean Sheet 11%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Uniao Sao Joao | Comercial |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 30 |
| Wins | 10 | 12 |
| Draws | 11 | 5 |
| Losses | 7 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1.07 | 1.1 |
| Goals Conceded | 1 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.25 | 1.06 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 8, 2026 Copa Paulista
Uniao Sao Joao vs Comercial
1:1
Jul 31, 2026 Copa Paulista
Comercial vs Uniao Sao Joao
0:1
Aug 16, 2025 Copa Paulista
Uniao Sao Joao vs Comercial
1:0
Jul 12, 2025 Copa Paulista
Comercial vs Uniao Sao Joao
0:1
Feb 1, 2025 Paulista A3
Comercial vs Uniao Sao Joao
1:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Uniao Sao Joao Compare
Top Goalscorer Bruninho
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63
Comercial Compare
Top Goalscorer Filipinho
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Uniao Sao Joao 86 / 100
Comercial 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Uniao Sao Joao Comercial
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Uniao Sao Joao Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Uniao Sao Joao scored in 75% of their last 28 games.
Comercial's defensive record shows goals conceded in 67% of 30 matches.
These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.
Solid form: Uniao Sao Joao remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Uniao Sao Joao VS Comercial
1.38 Goals Scored 1.13
1 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Uniao Sao Joao
(Home) 03 Oct
Uniao Sao Joao
2 : 1 Gremio Prudente
26 Sept
Gremio Prudente
0 : 0 Uniao Sao Joao
21 Sept
Juventus-SP
1 : 1 Uniao Sao Joao
12 Sept
Uniao Sao Joao
1 : 0 Juventus-SP
04 Sept
Bandeirante
3 : 1 Uniao Sao Joao
Page 1 of 6
03 Oct
Uniao Sao Joao
2 : 1 Gremio Prudente
12 Sept
Uniao Sao Joao
1 : 0 Juventus-SP
29 Aug
Uniao Sao Joao
3 : 0 Bandeirante
19 Aug
Uniao Sao Joao
1 : 1 Noroeste
08 Aug
Uniao Sao Joao
1 : 1 Comercial
Page 1 of 3
Comercial
(Away) 19 Sept
Sao Jose EC
3 : 0 Comercial
13 Sept
Comercial
0 : 0 Sao Jose EC
05 Sept
EC Sao Bernardo
2 : 1 Comercial
31 Aug
Comercial
2 : 0 EC Sao Bernardo
22 Aug
Noroeste
4 : 3 Comercial
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Sao Jose EC
3 : 0 Comercial
05 Sept
EC Sao Bernardo
2 : 1 Comercial
22 Aug
Noroeste
4 : 3 Comercial
08 Aug
Uniao Sao Joao
1 : 1 Comercial
25 Jul
Piracicaba
0 : 2 Comercial
Page 1 of 3
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Linense | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11:3 | 14 |
| 2 | Bandeirante | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5:5 | 8 |
| 3 | Gremio Prudente | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4:7 | 7 |
| 4 | Marilia | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4:9 | 4 |
Promotion - Copa Paulista (Play Offs)
Promotion - Copa Paulista (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Noroeste | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 10:10 | 9 |
| 2 | Uniao Sao Joao | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 6:5 | 8 |
| 3 | Comercial | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8:7 | 7 |
| 4 | Piracicaba | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4:6 | 6 |
Promotion - Copa Paulista (Play Offs)
Promotion - Copa Paulista (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 3)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juventus-SP | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11:5 | 10 |
| 2 | Primavera EC | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8:6 | 10 |
| 3 | Paulista | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6:7 | 10 |
| 4 | Osasco Sporting | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4:11 | 4 |
Promotion - Copa Paulista (Play Offs)
Promotion - Copa Paulista (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 4)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sao Jose EC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9:5 | 13 |
| 2 | EC Sao Bernardo | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12:8 | 9 |
| 3 | Sao Caetano | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2:9 | 2 |
| 4 | Santo Andre | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4:5 | 0 |
Promotion - Copa Paulista (Play Offs)
Promotion - Copa Paulista (Play Offs)
