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Uniao Sao Joao vs Sao Jose EC - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Copa Paulista Estádio Hermínio Ometto, Araras
Sun, Oct 11, 2026
VS
01:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

A one-off knockout match in the Copa Paulista. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Uniao Sao Joao have averaged 1.07 scored and 1 conceded recently, against Sao Jose EC's 1.5 scored and 0.82 conceded. Past meetings favor Sao Jose EC slightly — 1-3-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Feb 18, 2012, ending 2:0. Model xG sits at 0.94 vs 1.13, favoring Sao Jose EC. The model's pick is Away (2) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Uniao Sao Joao
35%
Draws
34%
Sao Jose EC
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

34% / Low Confidence
  • Sao Jose EC carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Sao Jose EC arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Uniao Sao Joao Clean Sheet 20%
Sao Jose EC Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Uniao Sao Joao Sao Jose EC
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 10 16
Draws 11 6
Losses 7 6
Goals Scored 1.07 1.5
Goals Conceded 1 0.82
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 18, 2012 Paulista A2
Sao Jose EC vs Uniao Sao Joao
2:0
May 1, 2010 Paulista A2
Uniao Sao Joao vs Sao Jose EC
2:2
Apr 4, 2010 Paulista A2
Sao Jose EC vs Uniao Sao Joao
4:1
Jan 20, 2010 Paulista A2
Sao Jose EC vs Uniao Sao Joao
0:1
May 24, 2009 Paulista A2
Sao Jose EC vs Uniao Sao Joao
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Uniao Sao Joao 32 / 100
Sao Jose EC 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Uniao Sao Joao Sao Jose EC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sao Jose EC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Uniao Sao Joao's goal record stands at 75% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Defensive concern: Sao Jose EC conceded in 61% of 28 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Uniao Sao Joao has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Uniao Sao Joao VS Sao Jose EC
1.25 Goals Scored 1.38
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.63
75% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Uniao Sao Joao

(Home)
03 Oct
Uniao Sao Joao
2 : 1
Gremio Prudente
26 Sept
Gremio Prudente
0 : 0
Uniao Sao Joao
21 Sept
Juventus-SP
1 : 1
Uniao Sao Joao
12 Sept
Uniao Sao Joao
1 : 0
Juventus-SP
04 Sept
Bandeirante
3 : 1
Uniao Sao Joao
Page 1 of 6

Sao Jose EC

(Away)
03 Oct
Sao Jose EC
1 : 0
Noroeste
27 Sept
Noroeste
1 : 1
Sao Jose EC
19 Sept
Sao Jose EC
3 : 0
Comercial
13 Sept
Comercial
0 : 0
Sao Jose EC
22 Aug
Sao Jose EC
0 : 0
Sao Caetano
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Sao Jose EC -
TBD -
EC Sao Bernardo 2
Comercial 3
Noroeste -
TBD -
Primavera EC 12
Sao Caetano 0
Linense -
TBD -
Paulista 2
Gremio Prudente 7
Juventus-SP -
TBD -
Bandeirante 3
Uniao Sao Joao 4
Quarter-finals
Sao Jose EC 3
Comercial 0
Noroeste 3
Primavera EC 2
Linense 3
Gremio Prudente 4
Juventus-SP 1
Uniao Sao Joao 2
Semi-finals
Sao Jose EC 2
Noroeste 1
Gremio Prudente 1
Uniao Sao Joao 2
Final
Sao Jose EC -
Uniao Sao Joao -