Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Union Berlin vs Augsburg

Germany Germany

Bundesliga 2025/2026 Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Berlin
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Ilic A.
Assist: Schafer A.
24'
Burke O.
26'
Trimmel C.

AI Match Summary

Union Berlin in this Bundesliga 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 4-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Union Berlin.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Union Berlin
33%
Draws
27%
Augsburg
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Union Berlin

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Augsburg have won more games recently than Union Berlin.
  • Union Berlin are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Union Berlin Clean Sheet 15%
Augsburg Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Union Berlin Augsburg
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 8 10
Draws 8 7
Losses 12 11
Goals Scored 3 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.63 1.75
Expected Goals (xG) 3.00 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 Bundesliga
Union Berlin vs Augsburg
4:0
Jan 15, 2026 Bundesliga
Augsburg vs Union Berlin
1:1
May 17, 2025 Bundesliga
Augsburg vs Union Berlin
1:2
Jan 15, 2025 Bundesliga
Union Berlin vs Augsburg
0:2
Apr 12, 2024 Bundesliga
Augsburg vs Union Berlin
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Union Berlin Compare

Top Goalscorer Ilic A.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Schafer A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.31
Avg xA / game 1.5

Augsburg Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Union Berlin 39 / 100
Augsburg 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Union Berlin Augsburg

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick UNI Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Union Berlin scored in 86% of their last 28 outings.

Defensive concern: Augsburg conceded in 82% of 28 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Union Berlin went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Union Berlin VS Augsburg
3 Goals Scored 1.5
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.75
100% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Union Berlin

(Home)
18 Jul
Aarau
2 : 1
Union Berlin
17 Jul
Winterthur
1 : 1
Union Berlin
12 Jul
Jena
2 : 0
Union Berlin
09 Jul
Chemnitzer
1 : 1
Union Berlin
04 Jul
Rathenow
2 : 12
Union Berlin
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Augsburg

(Away)
30 Jul
Augsburg
2 : 5
Bournemouth
25 Jul
Augsburg
1 : 1
Saarbrucken
16 May
Union Berlin
4 : 0
Augsburg
09 May
Augsburg
3 : 1
B. Monchengladbach
02 May
Werder Bremen
1 : 3
Augsburg
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Bayern Munich342851122:3689
2Dortmund34227570:3473
3RB Leipzig34205966:4765
4VfB Stuttgart34188871:4962
5Hoffenheim34187965:5261
6Bayer Leverkusen34178968:4759
7Freiburg341381351:5747
8Eintracht Frankfurt3411111261:6544
9Augsburg341271545:6143
10Mainz3410101444:5340
11Union Berlin341091544:5839
12B. Monchengladbach349111442:5338
13Hamburger349111440:5438
141. FC Koln347111649:6332
15Werder Bremen34881837:6032
16Wolfsburg34781945:6929
17Heidenheim34682041:7226
18St. Pauli34682029:6026
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Bundesliga 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - 2. Bundesliga (Main)