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Union Brescia vs Carpi - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie C - Group A Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Brescia
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Marras M.
Assist: Rizzo Pinna A.
19' Event
Morosini L.
22'
Crespi V.

AI Match Summary

The Serie C - Group A game between Union Brescia and Carpi finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Union Brescia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Union Brescia
35%
Draws
14%
Carpi
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Union Brescia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Carpi haven't matched Union Brescia's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Union Brescia's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Serie C - Group A form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Union Brescia Clean Sheet 68%
Carpi Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Union Brescia Carpi
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 12 7
Draws 12 7
Losses 5 14
Goals Scored 1.38 1.07
Goals Conceded 0.86 1.57
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 21, 2026 Serie C - Group A
Union Brescia vs Carpi
3:1
Oct 28, 2025 Coppa Italia Serie C
Carpi vs Union Brescia
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Union Brescia Compare

Top Goalscorer Marras M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Crespi V.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Carpi Compare

Top Goalscorer Morosini L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Union Brescia 95 / 100
Carpi 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Union Brescia Carpi

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Union Brescia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Carpi's defensive record shows goals conceded in 86% of 28 matches.

Recent resilience: Union Brescia stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Union Brescia scored in 69% of their last 29 games.

These sides typically produce 2.50 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Union Brescia VS Carpi
2.13 Goals Scored 1.88
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.88
63% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 88%
50% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Union Brescia

(Home)
04 Oct
Lecco
2 : 2
Union Brescia
27 Sept
Union Brescia
1 : 1
Dolomiti Bellunesi
20 Sept
Alcione Milano
0 : 4
Union Brescia
17 Sept
Union Brescia
2 : 2
Treviso
13 Sept
Trento
0 : 0
Union Brescia
Page 1 of 6

Carpi

(Away)
03 Oct
Pro Vercelli
2 : 0
Carpi
27 Sept
Carpi
0 : 3
Arzignano
20 Sept
Novara
2 : 2
Carpi
17 Sept
Carpi
2 : 2
Ospitaletto
13 Sept
Carpi
1 : 2
Cittadella
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cittadella 8 7 0 1 14:4 21
2 Union Brescia 8 4 4 0 14:6 16
3 Ospitaletto 8 4 3 1 14:6 15
4 Arzignano 8 4 2 2 12:9 14
5 Trento 8 3 5 0 11:5 14
6 Treviso 8 3 4 1 8:6 13
7 AlbinoLeffe 8 3 3 2 12:10 12
8 Alcione Milano 8 2 5 1 12:13 11
9 Dolomiti Bellunesi 8 2 4 2 7:7 10
10 Desenzano Calvina 8 2 4 2 6:7 10
11 Novara 8 2 3 3 8:10 9
12 Pro Vercelli 8 2 3 3 8:11 9
13 Lecco 8 2 3 3 6:8 9
14 Lumezzane 7 2 2 3 7:9 8
15 Pergolettese 8 1 5 2 3:5 8
16 Carpi 8 1 3 4 10:17 6
17 Folgore Caratese 8 1 3 4 9:12 6
18 Juventus U23 7 1 3 3 7:13 6
19 Giana Erminio 8 0 4 4 6:10 4
20 Renate 8 0 3 5 6:12 3
Promotion - Serie B 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie C - Group A (Play Out)