Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Union Comercio vs Comerciantes FC

Peru Peru

Copa de la Liga Estadio Municipal Carlos Vidaurre Garcia, Tarapoto
Union Comercio Logo

Union Comercio

0 - 1
FT
Comerciantes FC Logo

Comerciantes FC

Our Tip

Match Events

87' Event
Villanueva C.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 0-1. The second leg ended 0-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Union Comercio
35%
Draws
25%
Comerciantes FC
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Union Comercio

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Comerciantes FC haven't matched Union Comercio's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Union Comercio's way, sitting at 36%.
  • Union Comercio have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Union Comercio, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 37%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65%
Union Comercio Clean Sheet 20%
Comerciantes FC Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Union Comercio Comerciantes FC
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 16 9
Draws 7 13
Losses 7 8
Goals Scored 1.4 1.27
Goals Conceded 0.67 0.87
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 20, 2026 Copa de la Liga
Union Comercio vs Comerciantes FC
0:1
Aug 24, 2025 Liga 2
Comerciantes FC vs Union Comercio
0:1
Jul 20, 2025 Liga 2
Union Comercio vs Comerciantes FC
2:0
Jun 29, 2025 Liga 2
Comerciantes FC vs Union Comercio
2:1
May 11, 2025 Liga 2
Union Comercio vs Comerciantes FC
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Union Comercio Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Comerciantes FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Villanueva C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.63
Avg xA / game 0.38

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Union Comercio 36 / 100
Comerciantes FC 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Union Comercio Comerciantes FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Union Comercio found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (30 games).

Comerciantes FC let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Solid form: Union Comercio remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Union Comercio VS Comerciantes FC
1.38 Goals Scored 1
0.38 Goals Conceded 1.13
50% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Union Comercio

(Home)
13 Sept
ADA Jaen
1 : 0
Union Comercio
06 Sept
Union Comercio
1 : 0
U. San Martin
30 Aug
Llacuabamba
1 : 1
Union Comercio
23 Aug
Union Comercio
0 : 0
Carlos Mannucci
17 Aug
Pirata
1 : 2
Union Comercio
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Comerciantes FC

(Away)
25 Sept
Comerciantes FC
0 : 1
Sport Huancayo 2
04 Sept
Comerciantes FC
5 : 1
Ayacucho
29 Aug
Binacional
1 : 0
Comerciantes FC
22 Aug
Comerciantes FC
2 : 2
Union Minas
15 Aug
Estudiantil CNI
2 : 2
Comerciantes FC
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Alianza Atl. 3 3 0 0 5:1 9
2 Carlos Mannucci 3 2 0 1 6:4 6
3 A. Lima 3 0 1 2 2:5 1
4 Cesar Vallejo 3 0 1 2 2:5 1
Promotion - Copa de la Liga (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 ADA Jaen 2 1 1 0 2:0 4
2 Juan Pablo II 2 0 2 0 0:0 2
3 Comerciantes Unidos 2 0 1 1 0:2 1
Promotion - Copa de la Liga (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cajamarca 2 1 1 0 5:3 4
2 Llacuabamba 2 0 2 0 3:3 2
3 FC Cajamarca 2 0 1 1 2:4 1
Promotion - Copa de la Liga (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Atletico Grau 2 1 1 0 4:3 4
2 Pirata 2 1 0 1 4:3 3
3 Universitario de Deportes 2 0 1 1 1:3 1
Promotion - Copa de la Liga (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 5)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sport Huancayo 3 2 1 0 4:2 7
2 AD Tarma 3 1 1 1 3:2 4
3 Alianza Huanuco 3 1 1 1 5:5 4
4 Union Minas 3 0 1 2 2:5 1
Promotion - Copa de la Liga (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 6)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cienciano 3 3 0 0 6:2 9
2 Deportivo Garcilaso 3 1 1 1 5:3 4
3 Binacional 3 1 0 2 5:9 3
4 Cusco 3 0 1 2 4:6 1
Promotion - Copa de la Liga (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 7)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Los Chankas 2 2 0 0 4:0 6
2 Santos FC 2 1 0 1 2:4 3
3 Ayacucho 2 0 0 2 1:3 0
Promotion - Copa de la Liga (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 8)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Moquegua 2 1 1 0 3:2 4
2 Tacna Heroica 2 1 0 1 5:5 3
3 FBC Melgar 2 0 1 1 2:3 1
Promotion - Copa de la Liga (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 9)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sport Boys 2 1 1 0 5:2 4
2 AD Cantolao 2 1 0 1 4:6 3
3 U. San Martin 2 0 1 1 5:6 1
Promotion - Copa de la Liga (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 10)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sporting Cristal 3 2 1 0 5:2 7
2 Comerciantes FC 3 1 2 0 2:1 5
3 Union Comercio 3 1 0 2 3:4 3
4 Estudiantil CNI 3 0 1 2 2:5 1
Promotion - Copa de la Liga (Play Offs)