Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Union Comercio vs San Marcos

Peru Peru

Liga 2 2025 Estadio Municipal Carlos Vidaurre Garcia, Tarapoto
Union Comercio Logo

Union Comercio

5 - 0
FT
San Marcos Logo

San Marcos

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Liga 2 2025 game between Union Comercio and San Marcos finished 5-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Union Comercio.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Union Comercio
20%
Draws
0%
San Marcos
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Union Comercio

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / Very High Confidence
  • Union Comercio carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 80% — that's where the model lands on Union Comercio taking it.
  • Regular Liga 2 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Union Comercio here — 3 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24.4%
Union Comercio Clean Sheet 68%
San Marcos Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Union Comercio San Marcos
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 16 8
Draws 7 7
Losses 8 15
Goals Scored 1.35 0.77
Goals Conceded 0.71 1.67
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 27, 2026 Liga 2
San Marcos vs Union Comercio
0:3
Sep 21, 2025 Liga 2
Union Comercio vs San Marcos
5:0
Aug 16, 2025 Liga 2
San Marcos vs Union Comercio
1:4

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Union Comercio 95 / 100
San Marcos 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Union Comercio San Marcos

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Union Comercio Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 4:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 4.33 goals as a typical output.

Difficult form: San Marcos registered 5 defeats in their last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Union Comercio scored in 71% of their last 31 outings.

San Marcos's defensive record shows goals conceded in 70% of 30 matches.

Scoring Trends

Union Comercio VS San Marcos
1 Goals Scored 0
0.38 Goals Conceded 3
25% Over 1.5 100%
25% Over 2.5 100%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Union Comercio

(Home)
13 Sept
ADA Jaen
1 : 0
Union Comercio
06 Sept
Union Comercio
1 : 0
U. San Martin
30 Aug
Llacuabamba
1 : 1
Union Comercio
23 Aug
Union Comercio
0 : 0
Carlos Mannucci
17 Aug
Pirata
1 : 2
Union Comercio
Page 1 of 7

San Marcos

(Away)
02 May
San Marcos
0 : 3
Llacuabamba
25 Apr
Carlos Mannucci
3 : 0
San Marcos
19 Apr
San Marcos
0 : 3
Pirata
03 Apr
AD Cantolao
5 : 1
San Marcos
27 Mar
San Marcos
0 : 3
Union Comercio
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 FC Cajamarca 8 3 3 2 10:8 14
2 Moquegua 8 3 3 2 14:11 13
3 Cesar Vallejo 8 3 2 3 10:10 11
4 Tacna Heroica 8 2 4 2 11:12 10
5 Carlos Mannucci 8 2 2 4 15:19 8
Promotion - Liga 2 2025 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Liga 2 2025 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Union Comercio 8 7 0 1 18:4 21
2 Comerciantes FC 8 2 3 3 12:7 11
3 ADA Jaen 8 2 4 2 9:9 10
4 Santos FC 8 3 1 4 10:11 10
5 San Marcos 8 1 2 5 4:22 6
Promotion - Liga 2 2025 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Liga 2 2025 (Play Offs)