Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Union San Martin vs Estrella Azul

Peru Peru

Copa Peru 2021
Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
Moran R.
45' Event
Baylon J.
48' Event
Coronado Jose Luis

AI Match Summary

The Copa Peru 2021 game between Union San Martin and Estrella Azul finished 5-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Union San Martin.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Union San Martin
6%
Draws
4%
Estrella Azul
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Union San Martin

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Union San Martin come out ahead of Estrella Azul on wins alone.
  • Union San Martin are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this Copa Peru 2021 fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 97%
Over 1.5 Goals 87%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 27%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Union San Martin Clean Sheet 20%
Estrella Azul Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Union San Martin Estrella Azul
Matches Played 11 7
Wins 3 0
Draws 4 1
Losses 4 6
Goals Scored 0.88 0.57
Goals Conceded 1.63 2.43
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 0.57
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 2.43

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 17, 2021 Copa Peru
Union San Martin vs Estrella Azul
5:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Union San Martin Compare

Top Goalscorer Moran R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Coronado Jose Luis
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Estrella Azul Compare

Top Goalscorer Baylon J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Laya W.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.52
Avg xA / game 0.32

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Union San Martin 85 / 100
Estrella Azul 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Union San Martin Estrella Azul

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SMA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Estrella Azul's defensive record shows goals conceded in 100% of 7 matches.

Historical meetings average 7.00 goals per match.

Away concern: Estrella Azul has suffered 5 losses in 5 recent matches.

Union San Martin found the back of the net in 73% of recent matches (11 games).

Scoring Trends

Union San Martin VS Estrella Azul
0.88 Goals Scored 0.57
1.63 Goals Conceded 2.43
88% Over 1.5 86%
38% Over 2.5 43%
25% Over 3.5 29%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1AD Tarma742116:914
2Credicoop San Cristobal734013:613
3Alfonso Ugarte (Puno)734013:713
4Los Caimanes72417:810
5Deportivo Maristas723211:119
6Union San Martin722311:128
7Parachique712411:165
8Estrella Azul70164:171