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United Arab Emirates vs Iraq - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

World World

World Championship 2026 Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Al Hamadi A.
18' Event
Luan Pereira
Assist: Ramadan A.
46'
Sub
Al Hamadi A. In: Hussein A.
Out: Al Hamadi A.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-1. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
United Arab Emirates
20%
Draws
23%
Iraq
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: United Arab Emirates

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • United Arab Emirates's 1.56 goals per match outpaces what Iraq have produced (0.97).
  • United Arab Emirates are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
United Arab Emirates Clean Sheet 68%
Iraq Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric United Arab Emirates Iraq
Matches Played 27 30
Wins 12 12
Draws 7 6
Losses 8 12
Goals Scored 1.56 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.04 1.4
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 18, 2025 World Championship
Iraq vs United Arab Emirates
2:1
Nov 13, 2025 World Championship
United Arab Emirates vs Iraq
1:1
Mar 24, 2022 World Championship
Iraq vs United Arab Emirates
1:0
Oct 12, 2021 World Championship
United Arab Emirates vs Iraq
2:2
Jan 12, 2021 Friendly International
United Arab Emirates vs Iraq
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

United Arab Emirates Compare

Top Goalscorer Luan Pereira
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Iraq Compare

Top Goalscorer Al Hamadi A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.63
Avg xA / game 0.38

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

United Arab Emirates 95 / 100
Iraq 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
United Arab Emirates Iraq

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick United Arab Emirates Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: United Arab Emirates scored in 81% of their last 27 outings.

Iraq's defensive record shows goals conceded in 70% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

United Arab Emirates has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

United Arab Emirates VS Iraq
1.25 Goals Scored 0.75
0.63 Goals Conceded 2.13
63% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

United Arab Emirates

(Home)
06 Oct
Saudi Arabia
2 : 0
United Arab Emirates
03 Oct
United Arab Emirates
1 : 0
Oman
30 Sept
United Arab Emirates
1 : 1
Qatar
27 Sept
Bahrain
0 : 3
United Arab Emirates
24 Sept
United Arab Emirates
4 : 0
Yemen
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Iraq

(Away)
29 Sept
Saudi Arabia
2 : 0
Iraq
26 Sept
Kuwait
2 : 3
Iraq
23 Sept
Iraq
1 : 1
Oman
26 Jun
Senegal
5 : 0
Iraq
22 Jun
France
3 : 0
Iraq
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
United Arab Emirates 2
Iraq 3