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United States Virgin Islands vs Saint Martin - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

North & Central America North & Central America

CONCACAF Nations League Bethlehem Soccer Stadium, Upper Bethlehem
Our Tip

Match Events

44' Event
Raga Rigobert A.
Assist: Chevalier D.
49' Event
Denis R.
Assist: Montantin Y.
52'
Sub
Ramos J. In: Henry N.
Out: Ramos J.

AI Match Summary

Saint Martin in this CONCACAF Nations League matchup, with the score ending 0-5 — backing the pre-match view that favored Saint Martin.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
United States Virgin Islands
15%
Draws
49%
Saint Martin
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Saint Martin

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • United States Virgin Islands haven't matched Saint Martin's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Saint Martin's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 79%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 79%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
United States Virgin Islands Clean Sheet 10%
Saint Martin Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric United States Virgin Islands Saint Martin
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 6 16
Draws 4 3
Losses 20 12
Goals Scored 1.07 2.29
Goals Conceded 2.4 1.39
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 1, 2026 CONCACAF Nations League
United States Virgin Islands vs Saint Martin
0:5
Sep 26, 2026 CONCACAF Nations League
Saint Martin vs United States Virgin Islands
0:2
Nov 20, 2019 CONCACAF Nations League
United States Virgin Islands vs Saint Martin
1:2
Sep 8, 2019 CONCACAF Nations League
Saint Martin vs United States Virgin Islands
1:2
Nov 28, 2004 Caribbean Cup
United States Virgin Islands vs Saint Martin
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

United States Virgin Islands Compare

Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91

Saint Martin Compare

Top Goalscorer Arne P.
3 Goals
Assists Leader Raga Rigobert A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

United States Virgin Islands 10 / 100
Saint Martin 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
United States Virgin Islands Saint Martin

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Saint Martin Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Saint Martin conceded in 68% of 31 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Recent resilience: United States Virgin Islands stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

United States Virgin Islands found the back of the net in 57% of recent matches (30 games).

Scoring Trends

United States Virgin Islands VS Saint Martin
2 Goals Scored 1.63
2.13 Goals Conceded 1.63
100% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 88%
63% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

United States Virgin Islands

(Home)
04 Oct
Bahamas
2 : 3
United States Virgin Islands
01 Oct
United States Virgin Islands
0 : 5
Saint Martin
29 Sept
United States Virgin Islands
3 : 1
Bahamas
26 Sept
Saint Martin
0 : 2
United States Virgin Islands
29 Mar
Puerto Rico
2 : 0
United States Virgin Islands
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Saint Martin

(Away)
06 Oct
Saint Martin
6 : 0
Bahamas
01 Oct
United States Virgin Islands
0 : 5
Saint Martin
26 Sept
Saint Martin
0 : 2
United States Virgin Islands
23 Sept
Bahamas
0 : 8
Saint Martin
30 Mar
Bonaire
0 : 3
Saint Martin
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