Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Universitario de Deportes vs Deportivo Garcilaso

Peru Peru

Liga 1 Estadio Monumental
Our Tip

Match Events

23' Event
Valera A.
Assist: Flores E.
28' Event
Fara C.
46'
Sub
Flores E. In: Rivera J.
Out: Flores E.

AI Match Summary

Universitario de Deportes in this Liga 1 matchup, with the score ending 4-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Universitario de Deportes.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Universitario de Deportes
40%
Draws
29%
Deportivo Garcilaso
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Universitario de Deportes have won more games recently than Deportivo Garcilaso.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Liga 1 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Universitario de Deportes Clean Sheet 20%
Deportivo Garcilaso Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Universitario de Deportes Deportivo Garcilaso
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 13 10
Draws 10 7
Losses 7 12
Goals Scored 0.38 1.38
Goals Conceded 0.63 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 0.38 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 23, 2026 Liga 1
Universitario de Deportes vs Deportivo Garcilaso
4:1
Nov 8, 2025 Liga 1
Universitario de Deportes vs Deportivo Garcilaso
0:0
Jul 6, 2025 Liga 1
Deportivo Garcilaso vs Universitario de Deportes
0:1
Aug 17, 2024 Liga 1
Universitario de Deportes vs Deportivo Garcilaso
3:1
Mar 9, 2024 Liga 1
Deportivo Garcilaso vs Universitario de Deportes
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Universitario de Deportes Compare

Top Goalscorer Valera A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Fara C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.29
Avg xA / game 0.19

Deportivo Garcilaso Compare

Top Goalscorer Olivares C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Universitario de Deportes 32 / 100
Deportivo Garcilaso 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Universitario de Deportes Deportivo Garcilaso

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Universitario de Deportes found the back of the net in 67% of recent matches (30 games).

Deportivo Garcilaso's defensive record shows goals conceded in 66% of 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Universitario de Deportes has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Universitario de Deportes VS Deportivo Garcilaso
0.38 Goals Scored 1.38
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.75
38% Over 1.5 50%
13% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1A. Lima17124130:840
2Los Chankas17104325:2134
3Cienciano17103434:2233
4Universitario de Deportes1785424:1529
5FBC Melgar1784529:2028
6Cusco1783621:2427
7Deportivo Garcilaso1775521:1826
8Alianza Atl.1756620:1821
9Comerciantes Unidos1756618:2021
10AD Tarma1755722:2120
11Sport Boys1755715:1920
12Sporting Cristal1754828:3019
13Cajamarca1746721:2618
14Moquegua1753917:2418
15FC Cajamarca1745823:2817
16Atletico Grau1744912:1816
17Sport Huancayo1744921:3116
18Juan Pablo II1744922:4016