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UPDF FC vs Calvary Prediction & H2H Stats

Uganda Uganda

Premier League 2025/2026 Bombo Stadium, Kampala
UPDF FC Logo

UPDF FC

0 - 0
FT
Calvary Logo

Calvary

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Premier League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

25%
UPDF FC
35%
Draws
40%
Calvary
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Calvary

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • UPDF FC have won more games recently than Calvary.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 61%
UPDF FC Clean Sheet 20%
Calvary Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric UPDF FC Calvary
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 5 4
Draws 9 9
Losses 15 15
Goals Scored 0.72 0.46
Goals Conceded 1.21 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 19, 2026 Premier League
UPDF FC vs Calvary
0:0
Nov 19, 2025 Premier League
Calvary vs UPDF FC
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

UPDF FC 32 / 100
Calvary 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
UPDF FC Calvary

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Calvary Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Calvary conceded in 61% of 28 recent games.

Solid form: UPDF FC remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

UPDF FC scored in 45% of their last 29 games.

Historical meetings average 0.50 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

UPDF FC VS Calvary
0.88 Goals Scored 0.63
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.38
63% Over 1.5 38%
38% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

UPDF FC

(Home)
17 Sept
UPDF FC
1 : 0
Maroons
10 Sept
Police
0 : 0
UPDF FC
01 Sept
Entebbe UPPC
2 : 1
UPDF FC
29 Aug
UPDF FC
0 : 0
Kataka
23 May
Villa
2 : 1
UPDF FC
Page 1 of 6

Calvary

(Away)
23 May
Calvary
2 : 0
NEC FC
19 May
UPDF FC
0 : 0
Calvary
12 May
Uganda Revenue
1 : 1
Calvary
06 May
Calvary
1 : 0
Police
29 Apr
Entebbe UPPC
2 : 0
Calvary
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vipers 30 19 10 1 55:17 67
2 Kampala City 30 19 5 6 46:22 62
3 Villa 30 18 7 5 47:17 61
4 Kitara 30 16 8 6 43:22 56
5 Entebbe UPPC 30 14 9 7 30:20 51
6 NEC FC 30 13 12 5 31:22 51
7 Police 30 13 8 9 42:35 47
8 Maroons 30 9 11 10 26:27 38
9 BUL 30 9 10 11 30:33 37
10 Express FC 30 9 10 11 28:31 37
11 Uganda Revenue 30 5 16 9 27:30 31
12 Mbarara City 30 6 9 15 26:46 27
13 Lugazi 30 5 10 15 19:36 25
14 UPDF FC 30 5 7 18 24:41 22
15 Calvary 30 4 9 17 14:39 21
16 Buhimba 30 4 3 23 16:66 15
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Relegation - Big League (Main)