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UPDF FC vs Kitara - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Uganda Uganda

Premier League 2025/2026 Bombo Stadium, Kampala
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Match Events

71' Event
Bogere I.
82' Event
Living K.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Premier League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
UPDF FC
35%
Draws
45%
Kitara
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Kitara

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Kitara have won more games recently than UPDF FC.
  • Win probability leans Kitara's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Regular Premier League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 59%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
UPDF FC Clean Sheet 23%
Kitara Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric UPDF FC Kitara
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 5 15
Draws 9 11
Losses 16 3
Goals Scored 0.73 1.55
Goals Conceded 1.23 0.69
Expected Goals (xG) 0.91 0.99
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 6, 2026 Premier League
UPDF FC vs Kitara
1:1
Jan 7, 2026 Premier League
Kitara vs UPDF FC
2:1
Feb 13, 2025 Premier League
UPDF FC vs Kitara
0:0
Nov 22, 2024 Premier League
Kitara vs UPDF FC
4:0
Feb 3, 2024 Premier League
UPDF FC vs Kitara
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

UPDF FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Bogere I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.7
Avg xA / game 0.46

Kitara Compare

Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.55

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

UPDF FC 29 / 100
Kitara 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
UPDF FC Kitara

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Kitara Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Solid form: UPDF FC remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Attacking prowess: UPDF FC scored in 47% of their last 30 outings.

Kitara's defensive record shows goals conceded in 52% of 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

UPDF FC VS Kitara
0.57 Goals Scored 1.13
0.86 Goals Conceded 1.25
43% Over 1.5 75%
43% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

UPDF FC

(Home)
17 Sept
UPDF FC
1 : 0
Maroons
10 Sept
Police
0 : 0
UPDF FC
01 Sept
Entebbe UPPC
2 : 1
UPDF FC
29 Aug
UPDF FC
0 : 0
Kataka
23 May
Villa
2 : 1
UPDF FC
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Kitara

(Away)
07 Oct
Kitara
1 : 0
Kigezi HomeBoyz
17 Sept
Express FC
1 : 1
Kitara
12 Sept
Kitara
2 : 0
Mogadishu City
06 Sept
Mogadishu City
1 : 2
Kitara
29 Aug
Villa
1 : 1
Kitara
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vipers 30 19 10 1 55:17 67
2 Kampala City 30 19 5 6 46:22 62
3 Villa 30 18 7 5 47:17 61
4 Kitara 30 16 8 6 43:22 56
5 Entebbe UPPC 30 14 9 7 30:20 51
6 NEC FC 30 13 12 5 31:22 51
7 Police 30 13 8 9 42:35 47
8 Maroons 30 9 11 10 26:27 38
9 BUL 30 9 10 11 30:33 37
10 Express FC 30 9 10 11 28:31 37
11 Uganda Revenue 30 5 16 9 27:30 31
12 Mbarara City 30 6 9 15 26:46 27
13 Lugazi 30 5 10 15 19:36 25
14 UPDF FC 30 5 7 18 24:41 22
15 Calvary 30 4 9 17 14:39 21
16 Buhimba 30 4 3 23 16:66 15
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Relegation - Big League (Main)