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UPDF FC vs NEC FC

Uganda Uganda

Premier League Bombo Stadium, Kampala
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Premier League matchup, with the score ending 0-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%
UPDF FC
28%
Draws
50%
NEC FC
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: NEC FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • NEC FC have won more games recently than UPDF FC.
  • 50% — that's where the model lands on NEC FC taking it.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 38%
Over 2.5 Goals 22%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.6%
UPDF FC Clean Sheet 23%
NEC FC Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric UPDF FC NEC FC
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 5 14
Draws 7 10
Losses 18 6
Goals Scored 1.13 0.75
Goals Conceded 1.25 0.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 0.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 3, 2026 Premier League
NEC FC vs UPDF FC
1:0
Dec 16, 2025 Premier League
UPDF FC vs NEC FC
0:0
Apr 4, 2025 Premier League
UPDF FC vs NEC FC
0:0
Sep 24, 2024 Premier League
NEC FC vs UPDF FC
1:0
Feb 13, 2024 Premier League
UPDF FC vs NEC FC
2:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

UPDF FC 24 / 100
NEC FC 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
UPDF FC NEC FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NEC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: UPDF FC scored in 50% of their last 30 outings.

Defensive concern: NEC FC conceded in 40% of 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 1.20 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: UPDF FC stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

UPDF FC VS NEC FC
1.13 Goals Scored 0.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.13
63% Over 1.5 13%
38% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

UPDF FC

(Home)
23 May
Villa
2 : 1
UPDF FC
19 May
UPDF FC
0 : 0
Calvary
13 May
UPDF FC
1 : 2
Kampala City
07 May
Entebbe UPPC
2 : 0
UPDF FC
29 Apr
Police
2 : 0
UPDF FC
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NEC FC

(Away)
23 May
Calvary
2 : 0
NEC FC
20 May
NEC FC
1 : 4
Villa
13 May
NEC FC
3 : 0
Buhimba
09 May
Kitara
0 : 1
NEC FC
28 Apr
BUL
0 : 1
NEC FC
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Vipers301910155:1767
2Kampala City30195646:2262
3Villa30187547:1761
4Kitara30168643:2256
5Entebbe UPPC30149730:2051
6NEC FC301312531:2251
7Police30138942:3547
8Maroons309111026:2738
9BUL309101130:3337
10Express FC309101128:3137
11Uganda Revenue30516927:3031
12Mbarara City30691526:4627
13Lugazi305101519:3625
14UPDF FC30571824:4122
15Calvary30491714:3921
16Buhimba30432316:6615
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2026/2027 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2026/2027 (Qualification)
Relegation - Big League 2026/2027 (Main)