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Urduliz FT vs Derio

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
Merino A.
45' Event
Llamazares I.
79' Event
Eskurza L.

AI Match Summary

Urduliz FT in this Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Urduliz FT.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

73%
Urduliz FT
20%
Draws
7%
Derio
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Urduliz FT

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / High Confidence
  • Derio have won more games recently than Urduliz FT.
  • Urduliz FT are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Urduliz FT Clean Sheet 68%
Derio Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Urduliz FT Derio
Matches Played 30 33
Wins 8 12
Draws 8 8
Losses 14 13
Goals Scored 1.1 1.24
Goals Conceded 1.7 1.24
Expected Goals (xG) 1.23 1.43
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 25, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Urduliz FT vs Derio
2:1
Sep 14, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Derio vs Urduliz FT
2:0
Feb 17, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Urduliz FT vs Derio
0:1
Sep 30, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Derio vs Urduliz FT
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Urduliz FT Compare

Top Goalscorer Merino A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Eskurza L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.95
Avg xA / game 0.61

Derio Compare

Top Goalscorer Llamazares I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.79

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Urduliz FT 50 / 100
Derio 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Urduliz FT Derio

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Urduliz FT Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Urduliz FT scored in 63% of their last 30 outings.

Derio let in goals in 79% of their last 33 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.50 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Urduliz FT remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

- VS Derio
0 Goals Scored 1.75
0 Goals Conceded 1.25
0% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 75%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Urduliz FT

(Home)
10 May
Urduliz FT
0 : 0
Beasain
03 May
Pasaia
0 : 2
Urduliz FT
27 Apr
Urduliz FT
2 : 0
San Ignacio
17 Apr
Basconia
8 : 0
Urduliz FT
12 Apr
Urduliz FT
3 : 1
Leioa
Page 1 of 6

Derio

(Away)
29 Aug
Derio
0 : 1
Sestao
22 Aug
Gimnastic de Torrelavega
1 : 1
Derio
15 Jul
Derio
0 : 3
Ath Bilbao
06 Jun
Leioa
1 : 0
Derio
31 May
Derio
0 : 1
Leioa
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Basconia 34 23 7 4 89:32 76
2 Portugalete 34 19 13 2 66:29 70
3 Leioa 34 20 6 8 55:34 66
4 Beasain 34 19 7 8 53:34 64
5 SD Deusto 34 15 9 10 43:35 54
6 Alaves C 34 14 6 14 41:41 48
7 Touring KE 34 13 9 12 39:45 48
8 Derio 34 12 11 11 39:39 47
9 Eibar C 34 12 10 12 46:51 46
10 UD Aretxabaleta 34 12 8 14 40:45 44
11 Lagun Onak 34 11 9 14 44:49 42
12 San Ignacio 34 11 9 14 32:41 42
13 SCD Durango 34 9 13 12 43:37 40
14 Pasaia 34 10 9 15 45:60 39
15 Santurtzi 34 8 14 12 46:43 38
16 Urduliz FT 34 9 9 16 37:56 36
17 Padura 34 7 8 19 31:48 29
18 San Viator 34 1 5 28 21:91 8
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2024/2025 (Play Offs)