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Urgatzi vs CD Ariznabarra

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Tercera Division - Group 4 2020/2021
Urgatzi Logo

Urgatzi

1 - 1
FT
CD Ariznabarra Logo

CD Ariznabarra

Our Tip

Match Events

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Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Urgatzi host CD Ariznabarra in the Tercera Division - Group 4 2020/2021. CD Ariznabarra go into this one as the clear favorite. CD Ariznabarra have shipped 2 goals a game lately, while Urgatzi have conceded 3.13 and scored 0.5. Past meetings favor CD Ariznabarra slightly — 0-1-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on May 29, 2021, ending 5:1. The numbers (1.25 xG vs 2.00) point toward CD Ariznabarra. CD Ariznabarra in a double chance market carries the safer edge.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Urgatzi
6%
Draws
90%
CD Ariznabarra
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: CD Ariznabarra

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • CD Ariznabarra has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Urgatzi.
  • Model forecasts a 90% win probability edge for CD Ariznabarra.
  • League standings and seasonal metrics in Tercera Division - Group 4 2020/2021 provide steady trend data.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 22%
Urgatzi Clean Sheet 10%
CD Ariznabarra Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Urgatzi CD Ariznabarra
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 3 5
Draws 2 9
Losses 25 16
Goals Scored 0.5 0.88
Goals Conceded 3.13 2
Expected Goals (xG) 0.50 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 3.13 2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 29, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
CD Ariznabarra vs Urgatzi
5:1
Apr 24, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Urgatzi vs CD Ariznabarra
1:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Urgatzi 10 / 100
CD Ariznabarra 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Urgatzi CD Ariznabarra

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ARI Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Urgatzi scored in 47% of their last 30 games.

CD Ariznabarra let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Urgatzi went unbeaten in 0 of their last 5 games.

CD Ariznabarra lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Urgatzi VS CD Ariznabarra
0.5 Goals Scored 0.88
3.13 Goals Conceded 2
100% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 25%