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Ursaria vs AD Alcala

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Tercera RFEF - Group 7 2021/2022
Ursaria Logo

Ursaria

3 - 0
FT
AD Alcala Logo

AD Alcala

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 7 2021/2022 game between Ursaria and AD Alcala finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ursaria.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
Ursaria
20%
Draws
36%
AD Alcala
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Ursaria

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

44% / Low Confidence
  • Ursaria carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Ursaria a 44% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 7 2021/2022 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 25%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Ursaria Clean Sheet 68%
AD Alcala Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ursaria AD Alcala
Matches Played 38 30
Wins 15 7
Draws 9 8
Losses 14 15
Goals Scored 1.11 0.87
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.4
Expected Goals (xG) 0.85 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 3, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 7
Ursaria vs AD Alcala
3:0
Dec 4, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 7
AD Alcala vs Ursaria
2:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ursaria 77 / 100
AD Alcala 15 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ursaria AD Alcala

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ursaria Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: AD Alcala conceded in 80% of 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 3.50 goals when they meet.

Ursaria's goal record stands at 66% scoring rate across 38 recent games.

Ursaria went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ursaria VS -
0.5 Goals Scored 0
1.75 Goals Conceded 0
50% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Ursaria

(Home)
05 May
Ursaria
1 : 0
Villanovense
28 Apr
Navalcarnero
2 : 1
Ursaria
21 Apr
Ursaria
0 : 1
Numancia
14 Apr
Illescas
1 : 2
Ursaria
07 Apr
Ursaria
0 : 1
Atletico Paso
Page 1 of 8

AD Alcala

(Away)
24 Aug
RSD Alcala
2 : 0
AD Alcala
01 May
AD Alcala
2 : 0
Moratalaz
24 Apr
Villaviciosa de Odon
2 : 1
AD Alcala
13 Apr
Villaverde San Andres
0 : 0
AD Alcala
09 Apr
AD Alcala
1 : 1
Trival Valderas
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Atl. Madrid B 40 29 8 3 82:26 95
2 CD Las Rozas 40 22 9 9 68:35 75
3 CDE Madrid 40 20 12 8 61:42 72
4 Alcorcon B 40 19 12 9 63:39 69
5 Paracuellos Antamira 40 19 9 12 56:44 66
6 Ursaria 40 16 16 8 47:27 64
7 RSD Alcala 40 18 10 12 45:40 64
8 Getafe B 40 17 10 13 56:46 61
9 Rayo Vallecano B 40 15 12 13 59:43 57
10 AD Torrejon 40 16 9 15 55:48 57
11 Pozuelo de Alarcon 40 15 12 13 39:45 57
12 Galapagar 40 16 8 16 50:57 56
13 Trival Valderas 40 13 14 13 40:42 53
14 Parla 40 14 10 16 46:46 52
15 Tres Cantos 40 13 8 19 41:52 47
16 Villaverde San Andres 40 13 6 21 35:45 45
17 Moratalaz 40 12 7 21 46:73 43
18 Villaviciosa de Odon 40 10 8 22 47:73 38
19 AD Alcala 40 9 10 21 31:58 37
20 Carabanchel 40 7 12 21 43:70 33
21 Colonia Moscardo 40 5 2 33 20:79 17
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 7 2021/2022 (Play Offs)