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Ursaria vs Guadalajara

Spain Spain

Segunda RFEF - Group 5 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

37' Event
Villalon P.
62' Event
Rojo P.
73' Event
Barreto S.

AI Match Summary

The Segunda RFEF - Group 5 2023/2024 game between Ursaria and Guadalajara finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ursaria.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Ursaria
15%
Draws
28%
Guadalajara
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ursaria

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Guadalajara haven't matched Ursaria's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Ursaria's way, sitting at 80%.
  • Regular Segunda RFEF - Group 5 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Ursaria Clean Sheet 68%
Guadalajara Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ursaria Guadalajara
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 11 8
Draws 5 6
Losses 14 16
Goals Scored 0.97 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.10 1.43
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 11, 2024 Segunda RFEF - Group 5
Guadalajara vs Ursaria
1:0
Oct 1, 2023 Segunda RFEF - Group 5
Ursaria vs Guadalajara
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ursaria Compare

Top Goalscorer Villalon P.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Rojo P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.55

Guadalajara Compare

Top Goalscorer Barreto S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Morcillo D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.79

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ursaria 86 / 100
Guadalajara 11 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ursaria Guadalajara

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ursaria Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Guadalajara's defensive record shows goals conceded in 80% of 30 matches.

Attacking prowess: Ursaria scored in 60% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Guadalajara's recent record shows 4 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

- VS Guadalajara
0 Goals Scored 1.75
0 Goals Conceded 1
0% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Ursaria

(Home)
05 May
Ursaria
1 : 0
Villanovense
28 Apr
Navalcarnero
2 : 1
Ursaria
21 Apr
Ursaria
0 : 1
Numancia
14 Apr
Illescas
1 : 2
Ursaria
07 Apr
Ursaria
0 : 1
Atletico Paso
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Guadalajara

(Away)
13 Sept
Guadalajara
2 : 1
RSD Alcala
06 Sept
Guadalajara
2 : 3
Salamanca CF UDS
29 Aug
Conquense
4 : 1
Guadalajara
18 Aug
Marchamalo
1 : 0
Guadalajara
05 Aug
Cacereno
1 : 0
Guadalajara
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gimnastica Segoviana 34 17 10 7 46:27 61
2 San Sebastian Reyes 34 16 13 5 61:26 61
3 Numancia 34 18 6 10 51:39 60
4 Getafe B 34 15 12 7 41:32 57
5 Atletico Paso 34 15 11 8 28:21 56
6 Cacereno 34 12 13 9 43:37 49
7 Union Adarve 34 12 12 10 44:44 48
8 Navalcarnero 34 11 13 10 34:35 46
9 CF Talavera 34 12 10 12 31:27 46
10 Guadalajara 34 14 4 16 46:53 46
11 Villanovense 34 12 8 14 35:35 44
12 Ursaria 34 12 8 14 34:39 44
13 Illescas 34 11 11 12 34:32 44
14 AD Llerenense 34 12 8 14 31:36 44
15 UD San Fernando 34 9 11 14 31:43 38
16 CD Badajoz 34 8 13 13 35:39 37
17 Mensajero 34 5 10 19 28:58 25
18 Montijo 34 6 5 23 28:58 23
Promotion - Segunda RFEF - Group 1 2023/2024 (Promotion - Play Offs)