Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Uruguay Montevideo FC vs Cerrito

Uruguay Uruguay

Segunda Division
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Uruguay Montevideo FC play Cerrito in the Segunda Division. It looks like a close match. Recently, Uruguay Montevideo FC averaged 1 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. Cerrito averaged 1.75 goals scored and 1.63 conceded. In past meetings, Uruguay Montevideo FC won 1, Cerrito won 2, and they drew 2. Their last match on May 16, 2026 ended 2:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.31 for Uruguay Montevideo FC and 1.63 for Cerrito. This points to a Cerrito double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Uruguay Montevideo FC
30%
Draws
34%
Cerrito
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Uruguay Montevideo FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Cerrito has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Uruguay Montevideo FC.
  • Model forecasts a 36% win probability edge for Uruguay Montevideo FC.
  • League standings and seasonal metrics in Segunda Division provide steady trend data.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78%
Uruguay Montevideo FC Clean Sheet 14%
Cerrito Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Uruguay Montevideo FC Cerrito
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 6 10
Draws 7 11
Losses 16 8
Goals Scored 1 1.75
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 Segunda Division
Uruguay Montevideo FC vs Cerrito
2:2
Apr 6, 2026 Segunda Division
Cerrito vs Uruguay Montevideo FC
2:1
Oct 5, 2025 Segunda Division
Cerrito vs Uruguay Montevideo FC
2:1
Jul 12, 2025 Segunda Division
Uruguay Montevideo FC vs Cerrito
0:0
Apr 6, 2025 Segunda Division
Cerrito vs Uruguay Montevideo FC
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Uruguay Montevideo FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Lombardi M.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Cerrito Compare

Top Goalscorer Machado L.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Uruguay Montevideo FC 35 / 100
Cerrito 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Uruguay Montevideo FC Cerrito

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Uruguay Montevideo FC scored in 59% of their last 29 games.

Cerrito let in goals in 66% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Uruguay Montevideo FC went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Cerrito lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Uruguay Montevideo FC VS Cerrito
1 Goals Scored 1.75
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Atenas1061318:1119
2Cerrito1053215:1318
3River Plate Montevideo1052317:1617
4Colon1043310:915
5Tacuarembo94238:814
6Rentistas1042411:1314
7Fenix934214:1113
8Miramar1034314:1213
9Plaza Colonia1041510:1113
10Club Oriental De Futbol1026215:1312
11Huracan FC103348:1212
12La Luz92436:810
13Uruguay Montevideo FC1022610:158
14Paysandu FC921611:157