Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Uruguay vs Bolivia

South America South America

Copa América MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
Uruguay Logo

Uruguay

5 - 0
FT
Bolivia Logo

Bolivia

Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Pellistri F.
Assist: Araujo R.
21' Event
Nunez D.
Assist: Araujo M.
46'
Sub
Fernandez R. In: Suarez M.
Out: Fernandez R.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 5-0. The second leg ended 5-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Uruguay
35%
Draws
39%
Bolivia
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Bolivia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

26% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Uruguay come out ahead of Bolivia on wins alone.
  • 26% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Uruguay have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Uruguay, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24.4%
Uruguay Clean Sheet 68%
Bolivia Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Uruguay Bolivia
Matches Played 31 31
Wins 11 8
Draws 14 3
Losses 6 20
Goals Scored 1.16 0.77
Goals Conceded 0.77 2.16
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 25, 2025 World Championship
Bolivia vs Uruguay
0:0
Jun 28, 2024 Copa América
Uruguay vs Bolivia
5:0
Nov 21, 2023 World Championship
Uruguay vs Bolivia
3:0
Nov 16, 2021 World Championship
Bolivia vs Uruguay
3:0
Sep 5, 2021 World Championship
Uruguay vs Bolivia
4:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Uruguay Compare

Top Goalscorer Pellistri F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Nunez D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Bolivia Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Uruguay 41 / 100
Bolivia 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Uruguay Bolivia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Uruguay Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.40 goals per match.

Bolivia's defensive record shows goals conceded in 77% of 31 matches.

Solid form: Uruguay remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Away concern: Bolivia has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Uruguay VS Bolivia
0.88 Goals Scored 0.63
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Uruguay

(Home)
27 Jun
Uruguay
0 : 1
Spain
21 Jun
Uruguay
2 : 2
Cape Verde
15 Jun
Saudi Arabia
1 : 1
Uruguay
31 Mar
Algeria
0 : 0
Uruguay
27 Mar
England
1 : 1
Uruguay
Page 1 of 7

Bolivia

(Away)
11 Jun
Bolivia
0 : 4
Algeria
06 Jun
Bolivia
0 : 4
Scotland
01 Apr
Iraq
2 : 1
Bolivia
26 Mar
Bolivia
2 : 1
Suriname
15 Mar
Bolivia
3 : 0
Trinidad & Tobago
Page 1 of 7

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Argentina 3 3 0 0 5:0 9
2 Canada 3 1 1 1 1:2 4
3 Chile 3 0 2 1 0:1 2
4 Peru 3 0 1 2 0:3 1
Promotion - Copa América (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Venezuela 3 3 0 0 6:1 9
2 Ecuador 3 1 1 1 4:3 4
3 Mexico 3 1 1 1 1:1 4
4 Jamaica 3 0 0 3 1:7 0
Promotion - Copa América (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Uruguay 3 3 0 0 9:1 9
2 Panama 3 2 0 1 6:5 6
3 USA 3 1 0 2 3:3 3
4 Bolivia 3 0 0 3 1:10 0
Promotion - Copa América (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Colombia 3 2 1 0 6:2 7
2 Brazil 3 1 2 0 5:2 5
3 Costa Rica 3 1 1 1 2:4 4
4 Paraguay 3 0 0 3 3:8 0
Promotion - Copa América (Play Offs)