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Uruguay vs Brazil

South America South America

Copa América Allegiant Stadium, Paradise, NV
Sun, Jul 7, 2024
1 - 0
01:00 AM
Our Tip

Match Events

33'
Sub
Araujo R. In: Gimenez J.
Out: Araujo R.
39'
Lucas Paqueta
46'
Sub
Vina M. In: Caceres S.
Out: Vina M.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-0. The second leg ended 1-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

19%
Uruguay
35%
Draws
46%
Brazil
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Brazil

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Brazil come out ahead of Uruguay on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Brazil's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Brazil arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Uruguay, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Uruguay Clean Sheet 11%
Brazil Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Uruguay Brazil
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 11 15
Draws 13 8
Losses 6 7
Goals Scored 1.17 1.8
Goals Conceded 0.77 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 20, 2024 World Championship
Brazil vs Uruguay
1:1
Jul 7, 2024 Copa América
Uruguay vs Brazil
1:0
Oct 18, 2023 World Championship
Uruguay vs Brazil
2:0
Oct 15, 2021 World Championship
Brazil vs Uruguay
4:1
Nov 17, 2020 World Championship
Uruguay vs Brazil
0:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Uruguay 10 / 100
Brazil 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Uruguay Brazil

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Brazil Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Brazil has conceded goals in 67% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Uruguay stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Uruguay's goal record stands at 57% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Uruguay VS Brazil
0.88 Goals Scored 2.25
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Uruguay

(Home)
27 Jun
Uruguay
0 : 1
Spain
21 Jun
Uruguay
2 : 2
Cape Verde
15 Jun
Saudi Arabia
1 : 1
Uruguay
31 Mar
Algeria
0 : 0
Uruguay
27 Mar
England
1 : 1
Uruguay
Page 1 of 6

Brazil

(Away)
05 Jul
Brazil
1 : 2
Norway
29 Jun
Brazil
2 : 1
Japan
24 Jun
Scotland
0 : 3
Brazil
20 Jun
Brazil
3 : 0
Haiti
13 Jun
Brazil
1 : 1
Morocco
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Argentina 2
Ecuador 1
Venezuela 1
Canada 2
Uruguay 1
Brazil 0
Colombia 5
Panama 0
Semi-finals
Argentina 2
Canada 0
Uruguay 0
Colombia 1
Final
Argentina 1
Colombia 0
Canada 2
Uruguay 3