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US Venafro vs Paganese - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group G
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Gironda A.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group G game between US Venafro and Paganese finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward US Venafro.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%
US Venafro
15%
Draws
26%
Paganese
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: US Venafro

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Paganese come out ahead of US Venafro on wins alone.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group G form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
US Venafro Clean Sheet 12%
Paganese Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric US Venafro Paganese
Matches Played 8 32
Wins 2 15
Draws 2 5
Losses 4 12
Goals Scored 0.75 1.44
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.19
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 18, 2026 Serie D - Group G
US Venafro vs Paganese
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

US Venafro Compare

Top Goalscorer Gironda A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Paganese Compare

Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

US Venafro 30 / 100
Paganese 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
US Venafro Paganese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

US Venafro scored in 63% of their last 8 games.

Defensive concern: Paganese conceded in 66% of 32 recent games.

Solid form: US Venafro remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Paganese lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

US Venafro VS Paganese
0.75 Goals Scored 2.13
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

US Venafro

(Home)
18 Oct
US Venafro
1 : 0
Paganese
11 Oct
Ossese
1 : 1
US Venafro
04 Oct
Gelbison
0 : 1
US Venafro
27 Sept
US Venafro
2 : 3
Budoni Calcio
20 Sept
Afragolese
4 : 0
US Venafro
Page 1 of 2

Paganese

(Away)
18 Oct
US Venafro
1 : 0
Paganese
11 Oct
Paganese
3 : 0
Budoni Calcio
07 Oct
Paganese
1 : 2
Real Normanna
04 Oct
Sarnese
2 : 1
Paganese
27 Sept
Paganese
2 : 3
Gelbison
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sarnese 8 6 2 0 13:6 20
2 Monastir 8 5 1 2 21:13 16
3 Certosa V. Campagnano 8 5 1 2 13:6 16
4 Trastevere Calcio 8 4 2 2 11:14 14
5 Paganese 8 4 1 3 17:10 13
6 Unipomezia 8 3 3 2 14:10 12
7 Ossese 8 3 3 2 11:8 12
8 Albalonga 8 3 3 2 13:11 12
9 Aranova 8 3 3 2 12:10 12
10 Anzio Calcio 1924 8 3 3 2 8:6 12
11 Afragolese 8 2 4 2 9:7 10
12 Citta di Anagni 8 3 1 4 10:12 10
13 Gelbison 8 3 1 4 10:13 10
14 US Venafro 8 2 2 4 6:11 8
15 Budoni Calcio 8 2 1 5 12:20 7
16 Sarrabus Ogliastra 8 1 3 4 7:11 6
17 Latte Dolce 8 1 3 4 9:14 6
18 Atl. Lodigiani 8 0 1 7 8:22 1
Promotion - Serie D - Group G (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group G (Play Out)