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Stadium Background

USA U23 vs Mexico U23 Prediction & H2H Stats

World World

Pan American Games Estadio Sausalito, Vina del Mar
Our Tip

Match Events

23' Event
Ikoba T.
42' Event
Carrillo J.
50' Event
Fulgencio R.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-4. The second leg ended 1-4.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
USA U23
15%
Draws
48%
Mexico U23
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Mexico U23

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Mexico U23 come out ahead of USA U23 on wins alone.
  • 37% — that's where the model lands on USA U23 taking it.
  • Mexico U23 arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor USA U23, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
USA U23 Clean Sheet 68%
Mexico U23 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric USA U23 Mexico U23
Matches Played 32 36
Wins 12 19
Draws 4 6
Losses 16 11
Goals Scored 1.22 1.67
Goals Conceded 1.22 1.33
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 4, 2023 Pan American Games
USA U23 vs Mexico U23
1:4
Oct 12, 2023 Friendly International
USA U23 vs Mexico U23
2:1
Mar 25, 2021 Olympic Games
Mexico U23 vs USA U23
1:0
Mar 1, 2012 Friendly International
USA U23 vs Mexico U23
2:0
Aug 4, 1999 Pan American Games
Mexico U23 vs USA U23
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

USA U23 Compare

Top Goalscorer Ikoba T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Mexico U23 Compare

Top Goalscorer Carrillo J.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Fulgencio R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

USA U23 50 / 100
Mexico U23 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
USA U23 Mexico U23

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick USA U23 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

USA U23's goal record stands at 66% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

Mexico U23 let in goals in 72% of their last 36 matches.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: USA U23 remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

USA U23 VS Mexico U23
1.13 Goals Scored 2.13
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

USA U23

(Home)
13 Jul
USA U23
1 : 0
Paraguay U23
12 Jun
USA U23
0 : 2
Japan U23
25 Mar
France U23
2 : 2
USA U23
22 Mar
USA U23
3 : 0
Guinea U23
21 Nov
Morocco U23
1 : 0
USA U23
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Mexico U23

(Away)
10 Oct
Netherlands U21
1 : 0
Mexico U23
09 Sept
Mexico U23
2 : 1
Panama U23
06 Sept
Mexico U23
4 : 1
Panama U23
14 Jun
Mexico U23
1 : 3
Japan U19
11 Jun
South Korea U21
0 : 1
Mexico U23
Page 1 of 8

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Chile U23 1
USA U23 0
Brazil U23 1
Mexico U23 0
Final
Chile U23 1
Brazil U23 2
USA U23 1
Mexico U23 4