Sport Picks

Stadium Background

USA vs Belgium

World World

World Championship 2026 Lumen Field, Seattle, WA
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
De Ketelaere C.
Assist: Raskin N.
21'
Sub
Onana A. In: Vanaken H.
Out: Onana A.
31' Event
Tillman M.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-4, with Belgium advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
USA
33%
Draws
40%
Belgium
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Belgium

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • USA carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Belgium are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • USA have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Belgium, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Belgium have taken 5 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
USA Clean Sheet 10%
Belgium Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric USA Belgium
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 17 14
Draws 1 8
Losses 12 8
Goals Scored 2.38 3.25
Goals Conceded 1.75 0.63
Expected Goals (xG) 2.38 3.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 7, 2026 World Championship
USA vs Belgium
1:4
Mar 28, 2026 Friendly International
USA vs Belgium
2:5
Jul 1, 2014 World Championship
Belgium vs USA
2:1
May 30, 2013 Friendly International
USA vs Belgium
2:4
Sep 6, 2011 Friendly International
Belgium vs USA
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

USA Compare

Top Goalscorer Tillman M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.83
Avg xA / game 1.19

Belgium Compare

Top Goalscorer De Ketelaere C.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Vanaken H.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.95
Avg xA / game 1.81

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

USA 26 / 100
Belgium 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
USA Belgium

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick BEL Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

USA's goal record stands at 83% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 4.40 goals when they meet.

Belgium's defensive record shows goals conceded in 67% of 30 matches.

Recent resilience: USA stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

USA VS Belgium
2.38 Goals Scored 3.25
1.75 Goals Conceded 0.63
100% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

USA

(Home)
07 Jul
USA
1 : 4
Belgium
02 Jul
USA
2 : 0
Bosnia & Herzegovina
26 Jun
Turkey
3 : 2
USA
19 Jun
USA
2 : 0
Australia
13 Jun
USA
4 : 1
Paraguay
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Belgium

(Away)
10 Jul
Spain
2 : 1
Belgium
07 Jul
USA
1 : 4
Belgium
01 Jul
Belgium
3 : 2
Senegal
27 Jun
New Zealand
1 : 5
Belgium
21 Jun
Belgium
0 : 0
Iran
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
Germany1
Paraguay2
France3
Sweden0
South Africa0
Canada1
Netherlands1
Morocco2
Portugal2
Croatia1
Spain3
Austria0
USA2
Bosnia & Herzegovina0
Belgium3
Senegal2
Brazil2
Japan1
Ivory Coast1
Norway2
Mexico2
Ecuador0
England2
D.R. Congo1
Argentina3
Cape Verde2
Australia1
Egypt2
Switzerland2
Algeria0
Colombia1
Ghana0
1/8-finals
Paraguay0
France1
Canada0
Morocco3
Portugal0
Spain1
USA1
Belgium4
Brazil1
Norway2
Mexico2
England3
Argentina3
Egypt2
Switzerland1
Colombia0
Quarter-finals
France2
Morocco0
Spain2
Belgium1
Norway1
England2
Argentina3
Switzerland1
Semi-finals
France0
Spain2
England1
Argentina2
Final
Spain1
Argentina0
France4
England6