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USA vs Canada - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

World World

Friendly International Allianz Field, Saint Paul, MN
Our Tip

Match Events

29' Event
Ellis J.
Assist: Freeman A.
31'
Oluwaseyi T.
40'
Reyna G.

AI Match Summary

USA in this Friendly International matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored USA.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
USA
15%
Draws
36%
Canada
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: USA

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • USA have won more games recently than Canada.
  • Model gives USA a 49% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Friendly International form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
USA Clean Sheet 14%
Canada Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric USA Canada
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 18 16
Draws 1 7
Losses 11 7
Goals Scored 2 1.53
Goals Conceded 1.43 0.7
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 7, 2026 Friendly International
USA vs Canada
1:0
Mar 23, 2025 CONCACAF Nations League
Canada vs USA
2:1
Sep 7, 2024 Friendly International
USA vs Canada
1:2
Jul 9, 2023 Gold Cup
USA vs Canada
3:2
Jun 19, 2023 CONCACAF Nations League
Canada vs USA
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

USA Compare

Top Goalscorer Ellis J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Canada Compare

Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

USA 84 / 100
Canada 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
USA Canada

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick USA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: USA scored in 87% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Solid form: USA remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Canada let in goals in 47% of their last 30 matches.

Scoring Trends

USA VS Canada
2.38 Goals Scored 1.63
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.88
100% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 38%
63% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

USA

(Home)
07 Oct
USA
1 : 0
Canada
04 Oct
USA
3 : 0
Mexico
30 Sept
USA
4 : 2
Chile
26 Sept
USA
4 : 1
Peru
07 Jul
USA
1 : 4
Belgium
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Canada

(Away)
07 Oct
USA
1 : 0
Canada
03 Oct
Canada
2 : 0
Peru
26 Sept
Canada
1 : 0
Chile
04 Jul
Canada
0 : 3
Morocco
28 Jun
South Africa
0 : 1
Canada
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