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USA vs Chile - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

World World

Friendly International CITYPARK, St. Louis, MO
4 - 2
FT
Our Tip

Match Events

12'
Villagra J.
37' Event
Berhalter S.
Assist: Dest S.
45' Event
Ulloa D.

AI Match Summary

USA in this Friendly International matchup, with the score ending 4-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored USA.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
USA
15%
Draws
28%
Chile
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: USA

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • USA have won more games recently than Chile.
  • Model gives USA a 57% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 93%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 53%
Over 4.5 Goals 24%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
USA Clean Sheet 10%
Chile Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric USA Chile
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 18 10
Draws 1 5
Losses 11 15
Goals Scored 2 1.27
Goals Conceded 1.43 1.4
Expected Goals (xG) 2.19 1.85
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 30, 2026 Friendly International
USA vs Chile
4:2
Mar 26, 2019 Friendly International
USA vs Chile
1:1
Jan 28, 2015 Friendly International
Chile vs USA
3:2
Jan 23, 2011 Friendly International
USA vs Chile
1:1
Jul 7, 1995 Copa América
USA vs Chile
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

USA Compare

Top Goalscorer Berhalter S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Hall J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.68
Avg xA / game 1.09

Chile Compare

Top Goalscorer Ulloa D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gutierrez M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.68
Avg xA / game 1.03

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

USA 83 / 100
Chile 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
USA Chile

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick USA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

USA scored in 87% of their last 30 games.

Historical meetings average 3.60 goals per match.

Defensive concern: Chile conceded in 70% of 30 recent games.

Solid form: USA remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

USA VS Chile
2.38 Goals Scored 1.71
2 Goals Conceded 2
100% Over 1.5 86%
75% Over 2.5 71%
63% Over 3.5 43%

Recent Form & Match History

USA

(Home)
07 Oct
USA
1 : 0
Canada
04 Oct
USA
3 : 0
Mexico
30 Sept
USA
4 : 2
Chile
26 Sept
USA
4 : 1
Peru
07 Jul
USA
1 : 4
Belgium
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Chile

(Away)
07 Oct
Mexico
0 : 2
Chile
30 Sept
USA
4 : 2
Chile
26 Sept
Canada
1 : 0
Chile
09 Jun
D.R. Congo
1 : 2
Chile
06 Jun
Portugal
2 : 1
Chile
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