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USA vs Mexico - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

World World

Friendly International State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ
Our Tip

Match Events

28' Event
Hall J.
35'
Romo L.
46'
Sub
Gallardo J. In: Chavez Garcia M.
Out: Gallardo J.

AI Match Summary

USA in this Friendly International matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored USA.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

69%
USA
20%
Draws
11%
Mexico
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: USA

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / High Confidence
  • USA have won more games recently than Mexico.
  • Model gives USA a 69% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Friendly International form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
USA Clean Sheet 68%
Mexico Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric USA Mexico
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 18 17
Draws 1 9
Losses 11 5
Goals Scored 2 1.42
Goals Conceded 1.43 0.77
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 4, 2026 Friendly International
USA vs Mexico
3:0
Jul 6, 2025 Gold Cup
USA vs Mexico
1:2
Oct 16, 2024 Friendly International
Mexico vs USA
2:0
Mar 25, 2024 CONCACAF Nations League
USA vs Mexico
2:0
Jun 16, 2023 CONCACAF Nations League
USA vs Mexico
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

USA Compare

Top Goalscorer Hall J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Sullivan C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Mexico Compare

Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

USA 95 / 100
Mexico 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
USA Mexico

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick USA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 7:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

USA's goal record stands at 87% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: USA stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Difficult form: Mexico registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

USA VS Mexico
2.38 Goals Scored 2.13
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.75
100% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 38%
63% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

USA

(Home)
07 Oct
USA
1 : 0
Canada
04 Oct
USA
3 : 0
Mexico
30 Sept
USA
4 : 2
Chile
26 Sept
USA
4 : 1
Peru
07 Jul
USA
1 : 4
Belgium
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Mexico

(Away)
07 Oct
Mexico
0 : 2
Chile
04 Oct
USA
3 : 0
Mexico
30 Sept
Mexico
1 : 1
Peru
27 Sept
Mexico
1 : 1
Colombia
06 Jul
Mexico
2 : 3
England
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