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USD Casatese vs Chievo - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group B 2025/2026
Sun, May 17, 2026
2 - 3
02:00 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Avinci G.
37' Event
Paloschi A.
73' Event
Paloschi A.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-3, with Chievo advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
USD Casatese
15%
Draws
48%
Chievo
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Chievo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • Chievo carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Chievo's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Chievo arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Chievo, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
USD Casatese Clean Sheet 12%
Chievo Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric USD Casatese Chievo
Matches Played 31 31
Wins 16 18
Draws 7 4
Losses 8 9
Goals Scored 1.55 1.58
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.19
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2026 Serie D - Group B
USD Casatese vs Chievo
2:3
Jan 10, 2026 Serie D - Group B
Chievo vs USD Casatese
0:0
Sep 14, 2025 Serie D - Group B
USD Casatese vs Chievo
1:3
Apr 6, 2025 Serie D - Group B
Chievo vs USD Casatese
0:1
Nov 24, 2024 Serie D - Group B
USD Casatese vs Chievo
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

USD Casatese Compare

Top Goalscorer Avinci G.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Chievo Compare

Top Goalscorer Paloschi A.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Costantino R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

USD Casatese 27 / 100
Chievo 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
USD Casatese Chievo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Chievo Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

USD Casatese scored in 77% of their last 31 games.

Chievo let in goals in 61% of their last 31 matches.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: USD Casatese remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

USD Casatese VS Chievo
1.63 Goals Scored 2.38
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

USD Casatese

(Home)
04 Oct
USD Casatese
0 : 3
Pistoiese
27 Sept
USD Casatese
4 : 2
Varesina
20 Sept
Correggese
1 : 3
USD Casatese
16 Sept
USD Casatese
1 : 2
Sant'Angelo
12 Sept
Solbiatese
0 : 0
USD Casatese
Page 1 of 7

Chievo

(Away)
07 Oct
Brusaporto
2 : 1
Chievo
03 Oct
Chievo
5 : 0
Tritium
27 Sept
Nibbiano & Valtidone
2 : 0
Chievo
21 Sept
Chievo
2 : 1
Ciserano-Bergamo
16 Sept
Chievo
2 : 0
Club Milano
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
USD Casatese 4
AC Leon 0
Chievo 2
AC Milan U23 1
Final
USD Casatese 2
Chievo 3