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Ustrem Donchevo vs FK Riltzi

Bulgaria Bulgaria

Third League - North-East
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Ustrem Donchevo play FK Riltzi in the Third League - North-East. Ustrem Donchevo are favorites here. Recently, Ustrem Donchevo averaged 2.27 goals scored and 2 conceded. FK Riltzi averaged 1.03 goals scored and 2.7 conceded. In past meetings, Ustrem Donchevo won 3, FK Riltzi won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 30, 2026 ended 2:4. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.75 for Ustrem Donchevo and 1.50 for FK Riltzi. This points to a Ustrem Donchevo double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

61%
Ustrem Donchevo
15%
Draws
24%
FK Riltzi
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ustrem Donchevo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

87% / Very High Confidence
  • Ustrem Donchevo picked up more points recently compared to FK Riltzi.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.75 vs 1.50 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 80%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 80%
Over 3.5 Goals 48%
Over 4.5 Goals 24%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 58%
Ustrem Donchevo Clean Sheet 16%
FK Riltzi Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 85%
Second Half Goal 89%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ustrem Donchevo FK Riltzi
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 16 6
Draws 3 4
Losses 11 20
Goals Scored 2.27 1.03
Goals Conceded 2 2.7
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 3.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 30, 2026 Third League - North-East
FK Riltzi vs Ustrem Donchevo
2:4
Feb 14, 2026 Third League - North-East
Ustrem Donchevo vs FK Riltzi
3:1
Apr 19, 2025 Third League - North-East
FK Riltzi vs Ustrem Donchevo
3:1
Oct 12, 2024 Third League - North-East
Ustrem Donchevo vs FK Riltzi
2:0
May 11, 2024 Third League - North-East
FK Riltzi vs Ustrem Donchevo
4:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ustrem Donchevo 58 / 100
FK Riltzi 24 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ustrem Donchevo FK Riltzi

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ustrem Donchevo Win (1)
Secondary Pick Ustrem Donchevo & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +15.3%
1.89
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +8%
1.35
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Ustrem Donchevo attacking → ← attacking FK Riltzi

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ustrem Donchevo scored in 83% of their last 30 games.

FK Riltzi let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 4.20 goals.

Ustrem Donchevo went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

FK Riltzi lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

51 Points in last 5 22
1.88 Goals expected (xG) 1.00
2.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 3.63

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Chernomorets Balchik32274192:1485
2Ludogorets III322543101:1979
3Septemvri Tervel32253489:2278
4Volov Shumen32233693:2872
5Chernolomets32203978:4363
6Benkovski32186868:4060
7Cherno More II32167965:4455
8Ustrem Donchevo321731273:6754
9Olympic Varna321061658:8036
10Aksakovo32941940:6831
11Fratria II32861840:7130
12Svetkavitsa 201432781726:4829
13Botev Novi Pazar32851934:6929
14Dorostol32842029:6728
15Spartak Varna II32752042:7226
16FK Riltzi32642231:8322
17Svetkavitsa3201315:1291