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Stadium Background

Ustrem Donchevo vs Olympic Varna

Bulgaria Bulgaria

Third League - North-East
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Third League - North-East game between Ustrem Donchevo and Olympic Varna finished 3-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Olympic Varna.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Ustrem Donchevo
15%
Draws
85%
Olympic Varna
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Olympic Varna

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Ustrem Donchevo carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Olympic Varna a 85% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 96%).
  • History favors Ustrem Donchevo here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 96%
Over 3.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 37%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.6%
Ustrem Donchevo Clean Sheet 10%
Olympic Varna Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ustrem Donchevo Olympic Varna
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 12 10
Draws 3 3
Losses 14 16
Goals Scored 2.03 1.97
Goals Conceded 2.34 2.69
Expected Goals (xG) 2.69 2.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 22, 2026 Third League - North-East
Ustrem Donchevo vs Olympic Varna
3:4
May 9, 2026 Third League - North-East
Olympic Varna vs Ustrem Donchevo
1:2
Nov 8, 2025 Third League - North-East
Ustrem Donchevo vs Olympic Varna
4:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ustrem Donchevo 26 / 100
Olympic Varna 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ustrem Donchevo Olympic Varna

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Olympic Varna Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ustrem Donchevo scored in 83% of their last 29 games.

Olympic Varna has conceded goals in 86% of their last 29 outings.

H2H data points to 5.00 goals as a typical output.

Olympic Varna's recent record shows 4 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Ustrem Donchevo VS Olympic Varna
2.13 Goals Scored 2.5
2.88 Goals Conceded 3.25
100% Over 1.5 100%
100% Over 2.5 100%
75% Over 3.5 88%

Recent Form & Match History

Ustrem Donchevo

(Home)
20 Sept
Benkovski
3 : 2
Ustrem Donchevo
12 Sept
Ustrem Donchevo
2 : 4
Volov Shumen
05 Sept
FK Riltzi
4 : 1
Ustrem Donchevo
29 Aug
Ustrem Donchevo
2 : 3
Svetkavitsa 2014
26 Aug
Botev Novi Pazar
5 : 1
Ustrem Donchevo
Page 1 of 6

Olympic Varna

(Away)
20 Sept
Cherno More II
2 : 0
Olympic Varna
12 Sept
Chernomorets Balchik
4 : 3
Olympic Varna
05 Sept
Olympic Varna
1 : 3
Chernolomets
30 Aug
Ludogorets III
5 : 1
Olympic Varna
26 Aug
Olympic Varna
4 : 1
Septemvri Dragoevo
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Volov Shumen 6 5 1 0 23:4 16
2 Svetkavitsa 2014 6 4 1 1 13:4 13
3 Ludogorets III 6 4 1 1 16:4 13
4 Chernomorets Balchik 5 3 2 0 9:4 11
5 Chernolomets 6 3 2 1 10:6 11
6 Benkovski 4 3 0 1 12:5 9
7 Cherno More II 5 3 0 2 10:5 9
8 FK Riltzi 6 3 0 3 8:9 9
9 Botev Novi Pazar 5 2 2 1 11:8 8
10 Septemvri Tervel 3 2 1 0 8:4 7
11 Septemvri Dragoevo 5 2 1 2 11:13 7
12 Olympic Varna 6 2 0 4 13:18 6
13 Devnya 2005 5 1 1 3 5:12 4
14 Fratria II 6 1 0 5 6:23 3
15 Aksakovo 5 0 1 4 6:18 1
16 Dorostol 5 0 1 4 3:15 1
17 Ustrem Donchevo 6 0 0 6 11:23 0
Promotion - Vtora liga 2027/2028 (Main)